East Asia Update, November 2005 : Countering Global Shocks

World Bank

East Asia Update, November 2005 : Countering Global Shocks

Autores

World Bank

Editor

Washington, DC

Descripción

Growth in the Emerging East Asia region is expected to reach a little over 6 percent in 2005, down modestly from the exceptionally strong 7.2 percent pace of 2004. One of the clearly most fortunate developments of the last two years is the unexpectedly limited effect on economic growth of the more than doubling of crude oil prices. Several governments have had the political confidence and credibility with the public to implement politically sensitive cuts in or removal of subsidies on fuel products, allowing fuel users to respond more effectively to signals from world markets. Central banks in the region have also been tightening monetary policy to prevent the rise in oil prices and headline inflation from becoming embedded in higher trend rates of core price and wage inflation. While the tightening cycle may tend to moderate the cyclical recovery in domestic demand in the region in the near term, it will, by helping ensure moderate inflation and macroeconomic stability, also help promote more sustainable growth in the medium term. International trade has long been a great source of productivity gains and growth in East Asia. Last year's over 10 percent gain in world trade was paced by a 15-20 percent gain in East Asian real exports and imports. The Special Focus in this Update on What can East Asia Expect from the Doha Development Round? looks in more detail at the issues at stake for the region. Last but very far from least is the risk from avian influenza, which, if it expands to a widespread human influenza, could exact a dreadful toll in human life and economic losses both in Asia and around the world. The threat and the urgent policy responses that are needed are discussed later in this report.

Palabras clave

ADVERSE IMPACT, AGGREGATE DEMAND, AGRICULTURE, BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, BANK LENDING, BANKRUPTCY, BASKET OF CURRENCIES, BILL, BUSINESS CONFIDENCE, CAPITAL ACCOUNT, CAPITAL INFLOWS, CAPITAL MARKETS, CAPITAL OUTFLOWS, CENTRAL BANKS, CLIMATIC CONDITIONS, COMMODITY MARKETS, COMMODITY PRICE, COMMODITY PRICE CHANGES, CONSENSUS FORECASTS, CONSOLIDATION, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE, CONSUMER DURABLES, CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, CONSUMER PRICE INFLATION, CONSUMERS, CONSUMPTION GROWTH, CORE INFLATION, CORPORATE DEBT, CORPORATE PROFITS, CPI, CREDIBILITY, CURRENCY, CURRENCY MARKETS, CURRENT ACCOUNT, CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT, CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS, CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUSES, CYCLICAL DOWNSWING, DECENTRALIZATION, DEFLATION, DEMAND GROWTH, DEPRECIATION, DEVALUATION, DEVELOPING ECONOMIES, DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES, DISPOSABLE INCOME, DISTORTIONS, DISTRIBUTIONAL EFFECTS, DOLLAR PEG, DOLLAR VALUE, DOMESTIC DEMAND, DOMESTIC DEMAND GROWTH, DOMESTIC MONETARY POLICIES, DOMESTIC MONEY SUPPLY, ECONOMIC DISRUPTION, ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT, ECONOMIC EXPANSION, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC IMPACT, ECONOMIC LOSS, ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, ECONOMIC STRUCTURE, ENERGY EFFICIENCY, EXCHANGE RATE APPRECIATION, EXCHANGE RATE BAND, EXCHANGE RATE FLEXIBILITY, EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES, EXCHANGE RATES, EXPENDITURES, EXPORT COMMODITIES, EXPORT GROWTH, EXPORT MARKET, EXPORTER, EXTERNAL FACTORS, FINANCIAL CRISIS, FINANCIAL INTEGRATION, FINANCIAL MARKETS, FINANCIAL SECTOR, FISCAL DEFICIT, FISCAL POLICIES, FLEXIBLE EXCHANGE RATE, FLEXIBLE EXCHANGE RATE SYSTEM, FLOATING EXCHANGE RATE, FLOATING EXCHANGE RATE REGIME, FOOD PRICES, FOREIGN EXCHANGE, FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES, FOREIGN RESERVE, FOREIGN RESERVES, GDP, GINI COEFFICIENT, GLOBAL DEMAND, GLOBAL IMBALANCES, GLOBAL INTEGRATION, GROWTH RATE, GROWTH RATES, IMBALANCES, IMPORT, IMPORT GROWTH, IMPORT PRICES, IMPORTS, INCOME LEVELS, INDUSTRIAL ECONOMIES, INFLATION, INFLATION EXPECTATIONS, INFLATION RATES, INFLATIONARY EXPECTATIONS, INTEREST RATES, INTERNATIONAL INTEREST, INTERNATIONAL INTEREST RATES, INTERNATIONAL MARKETS, INTERNATIONAL PRICES, INTERNATIONAL TRADE, INVENTORIES, INVENTORY, INVESTMENT CLIMATE, INVESTMENT SPENDING, KEY RISKS, LABOR FORCE, LABOR MARKETS, LABOR PRODUCTIVITY, LEVERAGE, LIVING STANDARDS, LOCAL CURRENCY, LOW INTEREST RATES, MACROECONOMIC LEVEL, MACROECONOMIC STABILITY, MAIN CURRENCIES, MARKET PARTICIPANTS, MARKET PRICES, MARKET SHARE, METALS, MONETARY POLICY, MONETARY RESTRAINT, MOV, NATIONAL ECONOMIES, NATIONAL INCOME, NATIONAL SAVINGS, NEGATIVE SUPPLY SHOCKS, NET EXPORTS, OIL, OIL COMMODITIES, OIL COMMODITY, OIL COMMODITY PRICES, OIL DEMAND, OIL EXPORTERS, OIL IMPORTER, OIL IMPORTERS, OIL MARKET, OIL MARKETS, OIL PRICE, OIL PRICES, OPEC, OUTPUT, PER CAPITA INCOME, POLICY DECISIONS, POLICY MAKERS, POVERTY REDUCTION, PRESENT VALUE, PRICE INCREASES, PRICE INDEX, PRICE INFLATION, PRIMARY COMMODITIES, PRIMARY COMMODITY, PRIVATE CONSUMPTION, PRIVATE INVESTMENT, PRODUCERS, PRODUCTION PROCESSES, PRODUCTIVITY, PUBLIC GOOD, PUBLIC GOODS, PUBLIC INVESTMENT, PUBLIC POLICY, PUBLIC SPENDING, QUOTAS, REAL EXPORTS, REAL GDP, REAL INTEREST RATES, REGIONAL GROWTH, REGIONAL MARKET, RESERVE ACCUMULATION, RESOURCE USE, RETAIL PRICES, SECTOR REFORM, SHORTFALLS, SLOW GROWTH, SLOWDOWN, SMALL ECONOMIES, SOCIAL COSTS, SOCIAL PROTECTION, SOCIALIST ECONOMY, SPARE PRODUCTION CAPACITY, STOCK MARKET, STRONG DEMAND, SUPPLY CAPACITY, SUPPLY SHOCK, SUPPLY SHOCKS, SURPLUSES, SUSTAINABLE GROWTH, TERMS OF TRADE, TOTAL IMPORTS, TRADE GROWTH, TRADE LIBERALIZATION, TRADE LOSSES, TRADE POLICY, TRADE REGIME, TRADE SURPLUS, TRADING PARTNERS, TRADING SYSTEM, TRANSITION ECONOMIES, UNCERTAINTIES, UNEMPLOYMENT, VALUE LOSS, WAGE INFLATION, WAGES, WEIGHTS, WELFARE GAINS, WHOLESALE PRICES, WORLD DEMAND, WORLD ECONOMY, WORLD MARKET, WORLD MARKETS, WORLD PRICES, WORLD TRADE, WTO