Using a large climate ensemble to assess the frequency and intensity of future extreme climate events in southern Africa

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dc.creatorThomas, Timothy S.
dc.creatorSchlosser, C. Adam
dc.creatorStrzepek, Kenneth M.
dc.creatorRobertson, Richard D.
dc.creatorArndt, Channing
dc.date2022-05-27
dc.date2023-01-16T15:21:15Z
dc.date2023-01-16T15:21:15Z
dc.date.accessioned2026-06-27T14:55:15Z
dc.descriptionThis paper uses 7,200 smoothed climate change projections for each of the four emissions scenarios, together with inter-annual variation provided by detrended historical climate data to investigate changes in growing season (wettest 3 months) weather patterns from the 2020s to the 2060s for ten countries of Southern Africa. The analysis is done in 8,888 quarter-degree pixels by month. Temperature unequivocally rises in the region, but it rises relatively less along the coasts, particularly on the eastern side of the region. Precipitation has trended downward for much of the region since 1975, but relatively little change in precipitation is projected between the 2020s and the 2060s. Under the higher emissions “Paris Forever” scenario, we found that by the 2060s, the 1-in-20-year low-rainfall events will occur twice as frequently in most of the region, though it will occur less frequently in northwestern Angola. The 1-in-20-year high-rainfall events will occur 3 to 4 times as often in northeastern South Africa and twice as often in most of Angola.
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/127210
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/89414
dc.languageen
dc.publisherFrontiers Media
dc.relationhttps://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2022.787582
dc.rightsOpen Access
dc.sourceThomas, Timothy S.; Schlosser, C. Adam; Strzepek, Kenneth M.; Robertson, Richard D.; and Arndt, Channing. 2022. Using a large climate ensemble to assess the frequency and intensity of future extreme climate events in southern Africa. Frontiers in Climate 4: 787721. https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2022.787721
dc.subjectextreme weather events
dc.subjectclimate
dc.subjectclimate change
dc.subjectrisk
dc.subjectweather data
dc.subjectweather hazards
dc.subjectclimate variability
dc.titleUsing a large climate ensemble to assess the frequency and intensity of future extreme climate events in southern Africa
dc.typeJournal Article

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