Análise de tendência e mudança nos riscos no Zoneamento Agrícola de Risco Climático (Zarc).

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dc.contributorFABIANI DENISE BENDER; JOSE EDUARDO BOFFINO DE ALMEIDA MONTEIRO, CNPTIA; DANIEL DE CASTRO VICTORIA, CNPTIA; SANTIAGO VIANNA CUADRA, CNPTIA; ARYEVERTON FORTES DE OLIVEIRA, CNPTIA.
dc.creatorBENDER, F. D.
dc.creatorMONTEIRO, J. E. B. de A.
dc.creatorVICTORIA, D. de C.
dc.creatorCUADRA, S. V.
dc.creatorOLIVEIRA, A. F. de
dc.date2026-03-09T16:48:38Z
dc.date2026-03-09T16:48:38Z
dc.date2026-03-09
dc.date2025
dc.date.accessioned2026-07-07T04:18:36Z
dc.descriptionAbstract - The aim of this study was to evaluate the impacts of updating the climate database used in the Agricultural Climate Risk Zoning (Zarc), comparing the periods 1984- 2013 and 1993-2022. The Mann-Kendall test was applied to the continuous period of 1984-2022 to assess trends in climate variables. Additionally, the impacts on agricultural climate risk were analyzed, considering events of water deficit and minimum temperatures (<5°C) in both time intervals. The results revealed increases in average temperatures, higher evapotranspiration rates, and reductions in precipitation, particularly in the Southeast and Central-West regions, where an increased risk of water deficit and a longer dry season in Central Brazil were observed. In contrast, in the South, a reduction in the risk associated with extremely low temperatures was noted. These changes directly affect planting windows and intensify agricultural climate risks, especially in regions that are more prone to water deficits. The study highlights the importance of continuously updating the climate baselines used in Zarc, enabling more accurate risk assessments and supporting strategic decisionmaking in agricultural planning.
dc.descriptionCBAgro 2025.
dc.identifierIn: CONGRESSO BRASILEIRO DE AGROMETEOROLOGIA, 23., 2025, Porto Alegre. Anais [...]. Campinas: Sociedade Brasileira de Agrometeorologia, 2025. p. 1957-1962.
dc.identifier978-65-85111-36-2
dc.identifierhttp://www.alice.cnptia.embrapa.br/alice/handle/doc/1185202
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/457357
dc.languageeng
dc.rightsopenAccess
dc.subjectTendência climática
dc.subjectJanela de plantio
dc.subjectAvaliação de riscos
dc.subjectZoneamento Agrícola de Risco Climático
dc.subjectZarc
dc.subjectClimate trend
dc.subjectPlanting window
dc.subjectRisk assessment
dc.titleAnálise de tendência e mudança nos riscos no Zoneamento Agrícola de Risco Climático (Zarc).
dc.typeArtigo em anais e proceedings

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