A Ricardian Analysis of the Distribution of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture across Agro-Ecological Zones in Africa
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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This paper examines the distribution of
climate change impacts across the 16 agro-ecological zones
in Africa using data from the Food and Agriculture
Organization combined with economic survey data from a
Global Environment Facility/World Bank project. Net revenue
per hectare of cropland is regressed on a set of climate,
soil, and socio-economic variables using different
econometric specifications "with" and
"without" country fixed effects. Country fixed
effects slightly reduce predicted future climate related
damage to agriculture. With a mild climate scenario, African
farmers gain income from climate change; with a more severe
scenario, they lose income. Some locations are more
affected than others. The analysis of agro-ecological zones
implies that the effects of climate change will vary across
Africa. For example, currently productive areas such as
dry/moist savannah are more vulnerable to climate change
while currently less productive agricultural zones such as
humid forest or sub-humid zones become more productive in
the future. The agro-ecological zone classification can
help explain the variation of impacts across the landscape.
Palabras clave
AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES, AGRICULTURAL PRICES, AGRICULTURE, ALTITUDE, ANIMAL HUSBANDRY, ARID AREAS, ARID ZONE, ARID ZONES, CLIMATE, CLIMATE CHANGE, CLIMATE CHANGES, CLIMATE DYNAMICS, CLIMATE MODELS, CLIMATE SENSITIVITY, CLIMATE VARIABLES, CLIMATE ZONES, CLIMATES, CLIMATIC CHANGE, CLOUDS, COMMERCIAL FARMS, CROP INCOME, CROP VARIETIES, CROPLAND, DESERTS, ECOLOGICAL ZONES, ECONOMIC SURVEYS, ELECTRICITY, EMISSION, EVAPOTRANSPIRATION, FARM HOUSEHOLDS, FARM INCOME, FARM INCOMES, FARMER, FARMERS, FOOD SECURITY, FOREST, FORESTRY, FORESTS, GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT, GLOBAL WARMING, GREENHOUSE GAS, GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS, GREENHOUSE GASES, HUMID ZONE, HUMID ZONES, HYDROLOGY, HYDROMETEOROLOGY, INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE, IPCC, IRRIGATION, LATIN AMERICAN, LIVESTOCK INCOME, LIVESTOCK MANAGEMENT, LIVESTOCK SECTOR, LIVESTOCK SPECIES, NET INCOME, PASTURE, PRECIPITATION, PUBLIC LAND, RAIN, RAINFALL, RUNOFF, SAHARA, SATELLITES, SOIL, SOILS, SOUTH AMERICAN, SULFATE, SURFACE TEMPERATURE, TEMPERATURE, TEMPERATURE DATA, WATER FOR IRRIGATION, WEATHER, WELFARE MEASURE