Eradicating Poverty in Fragile States: Prospects of Reaching the "High-Hanging" Fruit by 2030
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World Bank Group, Washington, DC
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As the world approaches the target year
of the Millennium Development Goals and passes into the new,
post-2015 era, the development community has made a call for
a new international development goal of eradication of
extreme poverty by 2030. How feasible is that? For most of
the developing world, the goal seems ambitious, yet
achievable -- but what about the prospects for fragile
states in which an increasingly large share of the global
poor will live (estimated at nearly four in 10 by 2030)?
This paper presents a base case scenario with the
International Futures model that forecasts a 32 percent
poverty rate for fragile states by 2030 given current
conditions and trends. The paper considers alternative
scenarios to identify a range of possible outcomes. In the
most optimistic scenario, the paper steps beyond the search
for realistic policy levers and simply assumes exceptional
economic growth and decreased inequality for fragile states.
This extremely optimistic scenario produces a forecast of a
20 percent extreme poverty rate for this group of countries.
The paper then explores the effects of improved institutions
and improved security in fragile states and of a set of
poverty reduction policies that would be conditional on
security and good governance to be effective. The resulting
aggressive but reasonably attainable poverty rate in fragile
states is 24 percent in 2030. With newly revised Purchasing
Power Parity values (rebased to 2011 by the International
Comparison Project in May of 2014), the 2030 forecasts of
fragile state poverty rates are lower by 5 to 6 percent
across all scenarios, still leaving them significantly above
the 3 percent threshold for poverty eradication.
Palabras clave
ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY, AGRICULTURAL YIELDS, AVERAGE GROWTH, BUREAUCRATIC QUALITY, CAPACITY-BUILDING, CAPITAL INVESTMENT, CASH TRANSFERS, CHANGES IN POVERTY, CHRONIC POVERTY, CIVIL SOCIETY, CLEAN WATER, CLIMATE CHANGE, CONFLICT, CONSUMPTION GROWTH, CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA, CORRUPTION, COUNTRY INEQUALITY, CURRENT POVERTY, DEMOCRACY, DENSITY FUNCTION, DETERMINANTS OF POVERTY, DEVELOPED WORLD, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPING COUNTRY, DEVELOPING WORLD, DEVELOPMENT GOALS, DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS, DEVELOPMENT POLICY, DEVELOPMENT REPORT, DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH, DIRECT INVESTMENT, DIVERSIFICATION, ECONOMIC CONDITIONS, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE, ECONOMICS, EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT, ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY, EXTREME POVERTY, FINANCIAL FLOWS, FOREIGN AID, GINI COEFFICIENT, GINI INDEX, GLOBAL PARTNERSHIP, GLOBAL POVERTY, GOOD GOVERNANCE, GOVERNANCE PERFORMANCE, GROWTH RATE, GROWTH RATES, HEALTH CARE, HEALTH OUTCOMES, HIGH GROWTH, HIGH INEQUALITY, HIPC, HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION, HOUSEHOLD INCOME, HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS, HUMAN CAPITAL, HUMAN CAPITAL INVESTMENT, HUMAN DEVELOPMENT, HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT, IMPROVING GROWTH, INCOME, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, INCOME DISTRIBUTIONS, INCOME GENERATION, INCOME INEQUALITY, INCOME LEVEL, INCOME LEVELS, INCREASING INEQUALITY, INEQUALITY, INEQUALITY CHANGES, INEQUALITY CONSTANT, INEQUALITY DATA, INEQUALITY REDUCTION, INEQUALITY WILL, INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY, INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE, INSTITUTIONAL PERFORMANCE, INSTITUTIONAL REFORM, INSTITUTIONAL REFORMS, INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY, INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT, INTERVENTION, LABOR MARKET, LIFE EXPECTANCY, LOG-NORMAL DISTRIBUTION, LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES, MEAN VALUE, NATIONAL ACCOUNTS, NATIONAL INCOME, NATURAL RESOURCES, POLICY CHANGES, POLICY LEVEL, POLICY MAKERS, POLICY RESEARCH, POLITICAL REFORMS, POOR, POOR COUNTRIES, POOR HEALTH, POOR INFRASTRUCTURE, POOR LIVING, POOR PEOPLE, POOR POPULATION, POOR POPULATIONS, POPULOUS COUNTRIES, POST-CONFLICT COUNTRIES, POVERTY ANALYSIS, POVERTY ERADICATION, POVERTY ESTIMATES, POVERTY GOALS, POVERTY LEVELS, POVERTY LINE, POVERTY MEASURES, POVERTY RATE, POVERTY RATES, POVERTY REDUCTION, POVERTY REDUCTION POLICIES, POVERTY TARGET, PRIMARY SCHOOL, PRODUCTION FUNCTION, PUBLIC FINANCES, PUBLIC SECTOR, PUBLIC SECTOR MANAGEMENT, PURCHASING POWER, PURCHASING POWER PARITY, QUALITY OF LIFE, REDUCED INEQUALITY, REDUCED POVERTY, REDUCING INEQUALITY, REDUCTION IN POVERTY, REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT BANKS, SANITATION, SOCIAL CAPITAL, SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT, STANDARD DEVIATION, STATE CAPACITY, STRUCTURAL POLICIES, SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, TRADE OPENNESS, TRANSPARENCY