Shifting Patterns of Economic Growth
            and Rethinking Development

Lin, Justin Yifu; Rosenblatt, David

Shifting Patterns of Economic Growth and Rethinking Development

Autores

Lin, Justin Yifu

Rosenblatt, David

Editor

World Bank, Washington, DC

Descripción

This paper provides an historical overview of both the evolution of the economic performance of the developing world and the evolution of economic thought on development policy. The 20th century was broadly characterized by divergence between high-income countries and the developing world, with only a limited number (less than 10 percent of the economies in the world) managing to progress out of lower or middle-income status to high-income status. The last decade witnessed a sharp reversal from a pattern of divergence to convergence --particularly for a set of large middle-income countries. The latter phenomenon was also driven by increasing economic ties among developing countries, and on the intellectual scale, increased knowledge generation and sharing among the developing countries. Re-thinking development policy implies confronting these realities: 20th century economic divergence, the experience of the handful of success stories, and the recent rise of the multi-polar growth world. The paper provides descriptive data and a literature survey to document these trends. The paper also provides a brief survey of the role of multilateral institutions -- in particular, the World Bank -- in this changing context and offers suggestions on how they can adapt their strategies to improve development outcomes.

Palabras clave

ADVANCED COUNTRIES, ADVANCED COUNTRY, ADVANCED ECONOMIES, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY, AGRICULTURE, ANNUAL GROWTH, AVERAGE GROWTH, BANK CREDIT, BANK LENDING, BANK MANAGEMENT, BANKRUPTCIES, BANKRUPTCY, BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT, CAPITAL ACCUMULATION, CAPITAL FLOWS, CAPITAL INTENSITY, CAPITAL INVESTMENTS, CAPITAL MARKETS, CENTRAL BANKS, CLASSICAL ECONOMICS, COMMODITIES, COMMODITY, COMMODITY PRICES, COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES, COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY, COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE, COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGES, COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE, COMPETITIVE MARKET, COMPETITIVENESS, CONSUMER DEMAND, CONSUMERS, COUNTRY INEQUALITY, DEBT, DEBT CRISIS, DEMOGRAPHIC, DEREGULATION, DEVELOPED COUNTRIES, DEVELOPED WORLD, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPING COUNTRY, DEVELOPING ECONOMIES, DEVELOPING ECONOMY, DEVELOPING REGIONS, DEVELOPING WORLD, DEVELOPMENT AGENCY, DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE, DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS, DEVELOPMENT POLICIES, DEVELOPMENT POLICY, DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY, DISEQUILIBRIUM, DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME, DOMESTIC ECONOMIES, DYNAMIC ECONOMY, DYNAMIC EMERGING ECONOMIES, DYNAMIC EMERGING MARKETS, ECONOMETRICS, ECONOMIC COOPERATION, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE, ECONOMIC POLICY, ECONOMIC POWER, ECONOMIC POWERS, ECONOMIC PROGRESS, ECONOMIC RELATIONS, ECONOMIC RESEARCH, ECONOMIC STRUCTURE, ECONOMIC THEORIES, ECONOMIC THEORY, ECONOMIC THOUGHT, ECONOMICS RESEARCH, ECONOMIES OF SCALE, EDUCATION SYSTEMS, EMERGING MARKET, EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES, EMERGING MARKETS, ENTRY POINT, EXCHANGE RATE, EXCHANGE RATES, EXPORT GROWTH, EXPORT PROCESSING ZONES, EXPORTS, EXTERNALITIES, FACTORS OF PRODUCTION, FINANCIAL CRISIS, FINANCIAL FLOW, FINANCIAL FLOWS, FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, FINANCIAL SECTOR, FINANCIAL SECTOR DEVELOPMENT, FINANCIAL SUPPORT, FORECASTS, FOREIGN CAPITAL, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, FOREIGN EXCHANGE, FOREIGN FIRMS, FOREIGN INVESTORS, FREE MARKETS, FUTURE GROWTH, GDP, GDP PER CAPITA, GLOBAL ECONOMIC LANDSCAPE, GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS, GLOBAL ECONOMY, GLOBALIZATION, GOVERNMENT INTERVENTIONS, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, GROWTH PERFORMANCE, GROWTH RATE, GROWTH RATES, GROWTH THEORY, HEADCOUNT POVERTY, HIGH GROWTH, HIGH INCOME COUNTRIES, HUMAN CAPITAL, INCOME, INCOME GROWTH, INCOME INEQUALITY, INCOME LEVELS, INCOMES, INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES, INTEREST RATE, INTEREST RATES, INTERNATIONAL MARKET, INTERNATIONAL RESERVES, INVESTMENT CLIMATE, JOINT VENTURES, KNOWLEDGE GENERATION, LIVING STANDARDS, LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES, MACROECONOMIC POLICIES, MACROECONOMIC STABILIZATION, MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES, MARKET ECONOMY, MARKET PRICES, MARXISM, MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRIES, MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRY, MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES, MULTILATERAL DEVELOPMENT, NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT, NATIONAL ECONOMY, NATURAL RESOURCE, NATURAL RESOURCES, NEW PRODUCT, OPPORTUNITY COSTS, ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURES, OUTPUT, OVERVALUATION, OVERVALUED EXCHANGE RATES, OWNERSHIP STRUCTURE, PARTICULAR COUNTRY, PER CAPITA GROWTH, PER CAPITA INCOME, POLICY MAKERS, POLICY RESEARCH, POLITICAL ECONOMY, POVERTY ALLEVIATION, PREFERENTIAL ACCESS, PRICE CONTROLS, PRICE DECLINES, PRICE DISTORTIONS, PRIMARY PRODUCTS, PRIVATIZATION, PRODUCTIVITY, PROPERTY RIGHTS, PROTECTIONISM, PURCHASING POWER, RAPID GROWTH, RAPID INDUSTRIALIZATION, REGIONAL TRADE, RELATIVE INCOME, RELATIVE INCOMES, RENT SEEKING, RICH COUNTRIES, RURAL AREAS, SAVINGS, SMALLHOLDER AGRICULTURE, SOVEREIGN DEBT, STANDARD DEVIATION, STRUCTURAL BOTTLENECKS, STRUCTURAL CHANGE, TAX, TAX BREAKS, TAX SYSTEM, TAXATION, TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE, TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION, TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS, THIRD WORLD, TRADE LIBERALIZATION, TRADE RELATIONS, TRADING SYSTEM, TRANSACTION COSTS, TRANSITION COUNTRIES, TRANSITION ECONOMIES, TREASURY, TREASURY SECURITIES, UNEMPLOYMENT, URUGUAY ROUND, VALUE ADDED, WAGES, WEALTH, WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS, WORLD ECONOMY, WTO