Bundling measures for food systems transformation: A global, multimodel assessment

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dc.creatorSundiang, Marina
dc.creatorOliveira, Thais Diniz
dc.creatorMason-D'Croz, Daniel
dc.creatorGibson, Matthew
dc.creatorBeier, Felicitas
dc.creatorBenavidez, Lauren
dc.creatorBodirsky, Benjamin Leon
dc.creatorBos, Astrid
dc.creatorChepeliev, Maksym
dc.creatorChen, David Meng-Chuen
dc.creatorde Lange, Thijs
dc.creatorDoelman, Jonathan
dc.creatorDunston, Shahnila
dc.creatorFrank, Stefan
dc.creatorFujimori, Shinichiro
dc.creatorHasegawa, Tomoko
dc.creatorHavlik, Petr
dc.creatorHristov, Jordan
dc.creatorJägermeyr, Jonas
dc.creatorKozicka, Marta
dc.creatorKuiper, Marijke
dc.creatorKyle, Page
dc.creatorLotze-Campen, Hermann
dc.creatorLuchtenbelt, Hermen
dc.creatorMishra, Abhijeet
dc.creatorMüller, Christoph
dc.creatorNelson, Gerald C.
dc.creatorPalazzo, Amanda
dc.creatorPérez Domínguez, Ignacio
dc.creatorPopp, Alexander
dc.creatorSands, Ronald
dc.creatorSpringmann, Marco
dc.creatorStehfest, Elke
dc.creatorSulser, Timothy B.
dc.creatorTakahashi, Kiyoshi
dc.creatorTassinari, Gianmaria
dc.creatorThom, Ferike
dc.creatorThornton, Philip K.
dc.creatorTsuchiya, Kazuaki
dc.creatorvan Zeist, Willem-Jan
dc.creatorvan Meijl, Hans
dc.creatorvan der Mensbrugghe, Dominique
dc.creatorVan Vuuren, Detlef
dc.creatorvan Zanten, Hannah H. E.
dc.creatorWeindl, Isabelle
dc.creatorWiebe, Keith D.
dc.creatorZhao, Xin
dc.creatorHerrero, Mario
dc.date2025-10
dc.date2025-11-05T19:31:24Z
dc.date2025-11-05T19:31:24Z
dc.date.accessioned2026-06-27T14:58:58Z
dc.descriptionBackground Current food systems leave one in ten individuals at risk of hunger while driving unsustainable environmental impacts. Inaction risks further exacerbating negative impacts on both human and planetary health. These challenges emerge from complex system interactions, requiring approaches that engage with this complexity and consider how transformation measures interact across food systems. We aimed to quantify the magnitude and uncertainty of the impacts of key food systems transformation measures both individually and in a bundle using an ensemble of global economic models. Methods In this global multimodel assessment, we applied an ensemble of ten state-of-the-art global economic models to evaluate the potential of four key measures in transforming food systems: increasing agricultural productivity, halving food loss and waste, shifting towards healthier diets, and economy-wide climate mitigation policies aligned with limiting warming to 1·5°C. The scenarios used a middle-of-the-road shared socioeconomic pathway for population and gross domestic product growth, climate impact data from Jägermeyr and colleagues, Thornton and colleagues, and Nelson and colleagues, and dietary targets based on the EAT–Lancet healthy reference diet, with model simulations conducted from 2020 to 2050. We then assessed the effect of these measures in isolation and in combination in a bundled scenario. To further understand the interactions between these measures, we conducted a decomposition analysis that distinguishes between the individual effects of a measure (effect when implemented alone), total effects (its contribution within the bundle), and interaction effects (the difference between total and individual effects). This approach aimed to show complementarities and trade-offs that emerge when multiple measures are implemented simultaneously. Findings Our analysis showed that individual measures in isolation are insufficient to achieve high-level environmental objectives and might generate unintended consequences. In contrast, bundling measures produces co-benefits: avoiding 50% of projected agricultural greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 and almost 20% of anticipated land conversion, while moderating food price increases associated with ambitious climate change mitigation policies. Our decomposition analysis further shows that measures can have varying effects across different dimensions. Although dietary shifts and climate mitigation policies are the largest drivers of environmental benefits (each contributing to a median decline of >10 percentage points in non-CO2 emissions and 5 percentage points in agricultural land use globally), productivity improvements and reducing food loss and waste play essential roles in moderating price increases (each contributing to a median decline of >5 percentage points in average prices). Interpretation This study highlights the importance of implementing coordinated approaches to food system transformation and climate change mitigation rather than relying on isolated interventions. Comprehensive transformation requires understanding how supply-side and demand-side changes can interact with climate mitigation policies, enabling policy makers to design intervention packages that maximise benefits while minimising trade-offs across environmental, economic, and social dimensions.
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/177610
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/91112
dc.languageen
dc.publisherElsevier
dc.rightsOpen Access
dc.sourceSundiang, Marina; Oliveira, Thais Diniz; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Gibson, Matthew; Beier, Felicitas; et al. 2025. Bundling measures for food systems transformation: A global, multimodel assessment. Lancet Planetary Health 9(10): 101339. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101339
dc.subjectfood systems
dc.subjectbundling
dc.subjectgreenhouse gas emissions
dc.subjectfood prices
dc.subjectclimate change mitigation
dc.titleBundling measures for food systems transformation: A global, multimodel assessment
dc.typeJournal Article

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Instituto Internacional de Investigación sobre Políticas Alimentarias (IFPRI)