European and Central Asian Agriculture Towards 2030 and 2050
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The FAO global outlook study concludes that by and large world agriculture should be capable of producing the necessary food, provided the efforts to invest in infrastructures, agricultural research and human capital continued, and sustainability issues are addressed. The message of the study is, however, far from optimistic since significant local problems will remain. For example, by 2050, some 4 percent of the developing countries’ population (or some 320 million persons) could stil l be chronically undernourished. On the other hand, overnourishment (obesity and associated non-communicable diseases) is rapidly becoming a major problem, not only in developed countries but also in many developing countries alongside problems of undernourishment. Likewise, while at the global level there probably are still sufficient untapped land and water resources, locally an increasing number of countries (and regions within countries) are running out of land and fresh water, in particular in North Africa, the Near East and parts of South Asia. Also there are a considerable number of developing countries still experiencing unabated population growth with a high share of its population dependent on agriculture in an environment of very limited land and water resources, which make their development prospects look very bleak. The developments projected in this study are subject to two major uncertain factors: population growth and developments in energy markets . If new population projections would deviate drastically from the ones used in this study (UN 2008 Assessment), developments might turn out to be quite different.