Kyrgyz Republic Biannual Economic Update, Fall 2015
No hay miniatura disponible
Fecha
Autores
Título de la revista
ISSN de la revista
Título del volumen
Editor
World Bank, Washington, DC
Resumen
Descripción
GDP grew at a rate of 6.8 percent,
year-on-year (y/y), between January and August, boosted by
frontloaded gold production and a strong performance of the
agricultural sector. Gold output grew by 46 percent (y/y),
while the non-gold GDP growth rate reached 4.5 percent, up
0.9 percentage points from the same period in the previous
year. However, gold production is projected to decelerate
markedly during the remainder of 2015, while increasingly
adverse external conditions and exchange-rate developments
are expected to depress domestic consumption and private
investment, as well as foreign demand. As a result, the
overall growth rate for 2015 is projected to slow to 2
percent. As of August the headline inflation rate had fallen
to 5.8 percent (y/y) from 10.5 percent at end-2014, but the
combined effect of higher public spending and exchange-rate
pressures are expected to drive up prices during the final
months of the year, underscoring the importance of
maintaining a tight monetary stance. Looking beyond 2015,
the Kyrgyz economy is projected to recover over the medium
term, and public finances are expected to stabilize, but
this generally positive outlook is subject to significant
downside risks. In the baseline scenario, growth is
projected to accelerate to 4.2 percent in 2016, driven by
higher gold production and an expected acceleration in
regional economic activity. Growth in the non-gold sectors
should be relatively robust at around 3.7 percent, but a
slower-than-anticipated recovery in Russia and Kazakhstan
could threaten this projection. Moreover, slower growth in
both the domestic and regional economies could complicate
the process of fiscal consolidation.
Palabras clave
LIVING STANDARDS, MONETARY POLICY, DEFICIT, RISKS, CUSTOMS UNION, ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ACCOUNTING, DEPOSITS, STOCK, MARKET DEVELOPMENTS, INTEREST, DEPRECIATION, PUBLIC INVESTMENTS, IMPORT, FINANCIAL DISTRESS, DEBT STOCK, INTEREST RATE, REMITTANCE, EXCHANGE, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS, BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, LIQUIDITY, DOMESTIC MARKET, TAX COLLECTION, ACCESS TO BANK, INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT, RECESSION, REVENUES, WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS, LOAN, TAX, DECLINE IN INVESTMENT, FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKETS, INFLATION, PENSION, POVERTY REDUCTION, MONETARY CONTROLS, BUDGET, BANK LENDING, CENTRAL BANK, FINANCIAL SECTOR INDICATORS, DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION, FOREIGN MARKETS, CUSTOMS DUTIES, LABOR MARKET, FISCAL POLICIES, TRADE BALANCE, OIL PRICES, INDEBTEDNESS, RE-EXPORTS, CURRENCY, EXPORT GROWTH, TOTAL IMPORT, CURRENT ACCOUNT, INCOME GROWTH, INFLATIONARY PRESSURES, FINANCES, GOLD, SURPLUS, MARKET DYNAMICS, RECURRENT EXPENDITURES, OPTIONS, FREE FLOAT, REGULATORY SYSTEM, MARKETS, BARRIERS TO ENTRY, DEBT, PRIVATE INVESTMENT, RETURN, DEFICITS, FINANCIAL FLOWS, INFLATION RATE, DOMESTIC DEBT, IMPORTS, DIRECT INVESTMENT, LOANS, RESERVES, RETURN ON ASSETS, FINANCE, PUBLIC INVESTMENT, TAXES, BANK BALANCE SHEET, EXPENDITURE, EQUITY, INCOME TAXES, EXCHANGE-RATE, CONSUMPTION, GOOD, TOTAL EXPORTS, GOVERNMENT BUDGET, DEBT-SERVICE, DOMESTIC LIQUIDITY, MARKET CONDITIONS, BUDGET SURPLUS, FUTURE, PENSIONS, IMBALANCES, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, DEMAND, INVESTMENT PROJECTS, PUBLIC EXPENDITURES, CONTRACT, ECONOMY, DISBURSEMENTS, EXPENDITURES, CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT, BALANCE SHEET, REAL EXCHANGE RATE, MARKET, FOREIGN EXCHANGE, PUBLIC DEBT, TREASURY, CREDIT RISK, INSURANCE, BILL, OPEN MARKET, GOODS, SECURITY, REGISTRATION SYSTEM, DOMESTIC ECONOMY, GROWTH RATE, NATIONAL BANK, INVESTMENT, COMMERCIAL BANKS, SHARE, EXCHANGE- RATE, PUBLIC FINANCES, POVERTY, TREATY, UNCERTAINTY, REVENUE, EXTERNAL DEBT, PROFIT, INVESTMENTS, LENDING, RAPID GROWTH, EXCHANGE RATE, FISCAL DISCIPLINE, PUBLIC DEBT STOCK, REMITTANCES, PUBLIC SPENDING, COMMODITY PRICES, DOLLAR VALUE, CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCES, ECONOMIES, CONSOLIDATION, INVESTING