A bitter cup: climate change profile of global production of Arabica and Robusta coffee

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dc.creatorBunn, Christian
dc.creatorLäderach, Peter R.D.
dc.creatorOvalle Rivera, Oriana
dc.creatorKirschke, Dieter
dc.date2015-03
dc.date2015-01-16T19:41:56Z
dc.date2015-01-16T19:41:56Z
dc.date.accessioned2026-06-27T14:44:08Z
dc.descriptionCoffee has proven to be highly sensitive to climate change. Because coffee plantations have a lifespan of about thirty years, the likely effects of future climates are already a concern. Forward-looking research on adaptation is therefore in high demand across the entire supply chain. In this paper we seek to project current and future climate suitability for coffee production (Coffea arabica and Coffea canephora) on a global scale. We used machine learning algorithms to derive functions of climatic suitability from a database of geo-referenced production locations. Use of several parameter combinations enhances the robustness of our analysis. The resulting multi-model ensemble suggests that higher temperatures may reduce yields of C. arabica, while C. canephora could suffer from increasing variability of intra-seasonal temperatures. Climate change will reduce the global area suitable for coffee by about 50 % across emission scenarios. Impacts are highest at low latitudes and low altitudes. Impacts at higher altitudes and higher latitudes are still negative but less pronounced. The world’s dominant production regions in Brazil and Vietnam may experience substantial reductions in area available for coffee. Some regions in East Africa and Asia may become more suitable, but these are partially in forested areas, which could pose a challenge to mitigation efforts.
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/53031
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/86883
dc.languageen
dc.publisherSpringer
dc.rightsOpen Access
dc.sourceBunn, Christian; Läderach, Peter; Ovalle Rivera, Oriana; Kirschke, Dieter. 2014. A bitter cup: climate change profile of global production of Arabica and Robusta coffee. Climate Change Published online.
dc.subjectclimate change
dc.subjectcoffea arabica
dc.subjectadaptation
dc.subjectcoffea canephora
dc.subjectgeographical information systems
dc.subjectproduction
dc.subjectcambio climatico
dc.subjectadaptación
dc.subjectsistemas de información geográfica
dc.subjectproducción
dc.titleA bitter cup: climate change profile of global production of Arabica and Robusta coffee
dc.typeJournal Article

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Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT)