Sources of China's Economic Growth, 1952-99 : Incorporating Human Capital Accumulation
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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China's performance in economic
growth, and poverty reduction has been remarkable. There is
an ongoing debate about whether this growth is mainly driven
by productivity, or factor accumulation. But few past
studies have incorporated information on China's human
capital stock, and thus contained an omission bias. The
authors construct a measure of China's human capital
stock from 1952 to 1999, and, using a simple growth
accounting exercise, incorporate it in their analysis of the
sources of growth, during the pre-reform (1952-77), and the
reform period (1978-99). They find that the accumulation of
human capital in China (as measured by the average years of
schooling for the population aged 15 to 64) was quite rapid,
and contributed significantly to growth, and welfare. After
incorporating human capital, they also find that the growth
of total factor productivity, still plays a positive, and
significant role during the reform period. In contrast,
productivity growth was negative in the pre-reform period.
The results are robust to changes in labor shares in GDP.
The recent declining rate of human capital accumulation is a
cause for concern, if China is to sustain its improvements
in growth, and welfare in the coming decade. Funding for
basic education is unevenly distributed, and insufficient in
some poor regions.
Palabras clave
ABSOLUTE POVERTY, ABSOLUTE TERMS, AGED, AGGREGATE OUTPUT, AGGREGATE PRODUCTION FUNCTION, AGRICULTURE, ANNUAL GROWTH, ANNUAL GROWTH RATE, ANNUAL REPORT, AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH, BASE YEAR, BASIC EDUCATION, CAPACITY BUILDING, CAPITAL ACCUMULATION, CAPITAL INCOME, CAPITAL INVESTMENT, CAPITAL STOCK, CENTRAL PLANNING, COLLEGE EDUCATION, CONSTANT RETURNS, CONSTANT RETURNS TO SCALE, DATA AVAILABILITY, DECENTRALIZATION, DEFLATORS, DEPRECIATION RATE OF CAPITAL, DEVELOPED COUNTRIES, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DISTRIBUTION DATA, DOMESTIC SAVING, ECONOMIC CHANGE, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC POLICY, EDUCATION, EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT, EDUCATIONAL OPPORTUNITIES, ELASTICITIES, EMPIRICAL STUDIES, EMPIRICAL WORK, EXTERNALITIES, FACTOR ACCUMULATION, FAMILIES, FINANCIAL AID, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, FUNCTIONAL FORMS, GDP, GDP DEFLATOR, GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION, GROSS OUTPUT, GROWTH ACCOUNTING, GROWTH ANALYSIS, GROWTH OF LABOR, GROWTH PERFORMANCE, GROWTH RATE, GROWTH RATE OF OUTPUT, GROWTH RATES, HOUSING, HUMAN CAPITAL, ILLITERACY, INCOME SHARE, INFLATION, INNOVATION, INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE, INSURANCE, INVENTORIES, KNOWLEDGE ECONOMY, LABOR FORCE, LABOR FORCE GROWTH, LABOR INPUT, LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES, MARGINAL PRODUCTS, MEAN INCOME, MIGRATION, MORTALITY, MPS, NATIONAL ACCOUNTS, NATIONAL INCOME, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTING, OUTPUT GROWTH, OWNERSHIP STRUCTURE, PARTNERSHIP, POLICY RESEARCH, POPULATION GROWTH, POVERTY REDUCTION, PRICE INDEXES, PRIMARY EDUCATION, PRIVATE CONSUMPTION, PRIVATE SECTOR, PRODUCTION FUNCTION, PRODUCTION FUNCTIONS, PRODUCTION PROCESS, PRODUCTIVITY, PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH, RAPID GROWTH, REAL GDP, REGIONAL DISPARITIES, RELATIVE IMPORTANCE, SAVING RATE, SCHOOLS, SECONDARY SCHOOLS, SEX, SHARE OF LABOR, SOCIAL SERVICES, STATE-OWNED ENTERPRISES, STATISTICAL DATA, SURPLUS LABOR, TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS, TERTIARY EDUCATION, TFP, TIME SERIES, TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY, TOTAL LABOR FORCE, TOTAL OUTPUT, TRANSITION ECONOMIES, UNEMPLOYMENT, URBAN AREAS, VALUE ADDED, VOCATIONAL TRAINING, WAGE LEVEL, WAGES, WORKERS