Report on the Bioeconomic Modelling of Kapenta Fisheries on Lake Kariba
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This work on the bioeconomic modelling of the Kapenta fishery on Lake Kariba was conducted as part of a process of joint fisheries management of the fishery between the Governments of Zimbabwe and Zambia, and was supported by the IOC-SmartFish Project under its Fisheries management component (UNFAO). The first part of the report provides an overview of the Kapenta fishery: information about the bioecology of this resource; harvesting systems in operation on the Lake; management systems in both c ountries; as well as some elements of processing and marketing. The second part concerns the biological modelling. A summary of the work that has already been done is provided, together with an assessment of available data. Based on the information available, the dynamic population model was chosen and used (surplus production model of Fox 1970). Thereafter, the results of the biological modelling are presented and discussed. The third section of the report concerns the development of the econom ic part of the model. Previous economic assessments of Kapenta fisheries have been summarized. The results of the Economic Survey, carried out in 2013 to support the bioeconomic modelling exercise, are put forward. Assumptions and analyses to develop the economic part of the model (modelling demand and costs) are also presented in detail. Finally, the fourth section of the document details the bioeconomic model: the way it works and its results. This bioeconomic modelling exercise shows that in 2011, the Kapenta resource was overexploited with an excess of fishing effort of about 40 percent. Fisheries were operating almost at a situation of open-access equilibrium where the rent of the resource is fully dissipated. As a consequence, the fishing industry is achieving very poor economic returns and faced with numerous challenges, is also demonstrating a low level of sustainability. Other main findings of this report concern the overall performance of the Kapenta fishery: the potential of wealth for economic growth, in terms of rent (estimated at approximately US $24 million per year), is completely lost for the economy of both countries; Kapenta resource productivity and thus fisheries production is negatively affected due to overexploitation, in turn leading to a negative impact on the food security status of those consumers who strongly depend on Kapenta in their diet. The fisheries generate a substantial amount of ‘on-board’ work (crew), however, remuneration for this type o f labour tends to be very low compared to national wage standards. Furthermore, lower levels of production have no doubt had a negative impact on employment in Kapenta processing activities that take place along the lakeshore. This situation requires further study, during the Bioeconomic Working Group, and should be based on information provided by the industry on processing activities. In addition to the diagnosis of the Kapenta fisheries and the economic situation of the industry in 2011, this report illustrates the potential of the model in terms of simulation for management purposes and its prospects for development. 5 The main recommendations of this study concern how to improve the bioeconomic model that has been developed. Thus these recommendations are mainly focused on the need to improve the information necessary feed and to develop the model. Recommended approaches will require strengthening partnerships with the industry.