Taking Stock, June 2010

Dinh, Viet Tuan; Rama, Martin

Taking Stock, June 2010

Autores

Dinh, Viet Tuan

Rama, Martin

Editor

World Bank, Hanoi

Descripción

Vietnam has navigated the global crisis better than many other countries. GDP grew by 5.3 percent in 2009, accelerating to 6.9 percent in the last quarter of the year. At 5.8 percent, the figure for the first quarter of 2010 was less impressive, but claims that growth has slowed down are most probably unwarranted. Exports declined in 2009, for the first time since the beginning of economic reforms, but their decline was smaller than in other countries of the region. By now export growth is converging back to the 30 percent annual growth rate observed before the crisis. Inflation, which had reached 19.9 percent in 2008, was down to 6.5 percent in 2009. While there were some worrying signs of inflation acceleration in late 2009 and early 2010, by now the monthly increase of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is again moderate. And as in previous years, there were no banking crises despite the continuation of macroeconomic turbulence. More generally, lack of clarity by markets forces the government to overshoot in its policy reactions. Because markets are not sure to understand what the government is up to, they need to see very strong action in order to be convinced that the right course of action has been taken. As a result, Vietnam has had to go through dramatic shifts in the policy stance as circumstances changed. The stabilization policies of 2008 effectively 'killed' the real estate bubble and brought inflation rates to zero in just a few months, but such speed took a toll on economic activity. The stimulus policies of 2009 were equally strong and determined, but they ended up putting too much pressure on international reserves. With more information disclosure and better communication, policy shifts could perhaps be less extreme. Combined with stronger macroeconomic management, it should be possible for Vietnam to gradually free itself from the 'stop-and-go' cycle that has characterized macroeconomic policies over the last three years.

Palabras clave

ACCOUNTING, ACCOUNTING STANDARDS, AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES, ANNUAL GROWTH, ASSET PRICE, ASSET QUALITY, BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, BANK DEPOSITS, BANK INTEREST RATES, BANK LOANS, BANK RATE, BANKING CRISES, BANKING CRISIS, BANKING SECTOR, BANKING SECTOR REFORM, BANKING SYSTEM, BARRIER, BLACK MARKET, BOND, BOND ISSUANCES, BUDGET DEFICIT, CAPITAL ACCOUNT, CAPITAL ADEQUACY, CAPITAL FLOWS, CAPITAL FORMATION, CAPITAL INFLOWS, CASH MANAGEMENT, CIVIL CODE, CLARITY, COMMERCIAL BANK, COMMERCIAL BANKS, COMMODITY, COMMODITY EXPORTS, COMPETITIVENESS, CONSOLIDATION, CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, CONSUMPTION GOODS, CORE INFLATION, COUNTRY RISK, CREDIT DEFAULT, CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS, CREDIT GROWTH, CREDIT INCREASES, CREDIT INSTITUTIONS, CREDIT SOURCE, CREDITORS, CURRENCY, CURRENCY APPRECIATION, CURRENCY DEPRECIATION, CURRENT ACCOUNT, CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE, CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT, DEBT, DEBT BURDEN, DEBT RATIO, DEBT RATIOS, DEBT SERVICE, DEBT SUSTAINABILITY, DEBTORS, DEBTS, DEFICITS, DEMAND FOR CREDIT, DEPOSIT, DEPOSIT INSURANCE, DEPOSITS, DEVALUATION, DEVALUATIONS, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPMENT BANK, DISBURSEMENTS, DISCLOSURE OF INFORMATION, DISCOUNT RATE, DOLLAR EXCHANGE RATE, DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION, DOMESTIC CURRENCY, DOMESTIC DEMAND, DOMESTIC PRICE, DOMESTIC PRICES, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS, ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE, ECONOMIC REFORMS, ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN, EQUILIBRIUM, EQUIPMENT, EQUIPMENTS, EXCESS LIQUIDITY, EXCESS SUPPLY, EXCHANGE RATE, EXCHANGE RATE MANAGEMENT, EXCHANGE RATE POLICY, EXCHANGE RATES, EXPANSIONARY POLICY, EXPENDITURE, EXPENDITURES, EXPORT EARNINGS, EXPORT GROWTH, EXPORT VOLUME, EXPORTER, EXTERNAL DEBT, FINANCE CORPORATION, FINANCIAL ASSETS, FINANCIAL CRISIS, FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT, FINANCIAL SERVICES, FINANCIAL SYSTEM, FISCAL BALANCE, FISCAL CONSOLIDATION, FISCAL DEFICIT, FISCAL DEFICITS, FIXED CAPITAL, FOREIGN CURRENCY, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTORS, FOREIGN EXCHANGE, FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET, FOREIGN INVESTMENTS, FOREIGN INVESTORS, FOREIGN TRADE, GLOBAL ECONOMY, GOLD, GOVERNMENT BOND, GOVERNMENT BONDS, GOVERNMENT DEFICIT, GOVERNMENT REVENUE, GOVERNMENT SPENDING, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, GROWTH PERFORMANCE, GROWTH RATE, GROWTH RATES, HOLDING, HOLDINGS, IMBALANCE, IMPORT, IMPORTS, IMPORTS OF CONSUMPTION, INCOME TAX, INFLATION, INFLATION RATE, INFLATION RATES, INFLATION TARGET, INFORMATION DISCLOSURE, INTEREST RATE, INTEREST RATE FLEXIBILITY, INTEREST RATES, INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL, INTERNATIONAL FINANCE, INTERNATIONAL PRICE, INTERNATIONAL PRICE OF OIL, INTERNATIONAL PRICES, INTERNATIONAL RESERVES, INTERNATIONAL TRADE, INVESTMENT DEMAND, INVESTMENT INCOME, INVESTMENT SPENDING, ISSUANCES, LIBERALIZATION, LONG-TERM LOANS, MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS, MACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENT, MACROECONOMIC POLICIES, MACROECONOMIC POLICY, MACROECONOMIC RISKS, MARKET ECONOMIES, MARKET LEVELS, MATURITY, MINIMUM CAPITAL REQUIREMENT, MONETARY AGGREGATES, MONETARY AUTHORITIES, MONETARY FUND, MONETARY POLICY, MONEY DEMAND, MORAL SUASION, NON-PERFORMING LOAN, NON-PERFORMING LOANS, NPL, OIL EXPORT, OIL EXPORTS, OIL REVENUES, OUTSTANDING CREDIT, PARALLEL EXCHANGE RATE, PARALLEL MARKET, PLEDGES, PORTFOLIO, PORTFOLIO INFLOWS, PORTFOLIO INVESTMENTS, PORTFOLIOS, PRIVATE CONSUMPTION, PRIVATE DEBT, PRODUCTS EXPORTS, PUBLIC DEBT, PUBLIC EXTERNAL DEBT, PUBLIC FINANCE, RE-EXPORTS, REAL ESTATE, REAL EXCHANGE RATE, REAL EXCHANGE RATE APPRECIATION, REMITTANCES, RESERVES, RETURN, RETURNS, RISK PREMIUM, SHORT-TERM CAPITAL, SHORT-TERM INTEREST RATE, STABILIZATION POLICIES, STABLE FINANCIAL SYSTEM, STATE BANK, STOCK EXCHANGE, STOCKS, SURPLUS, TAX, TOTAL CREDIT, TOTAL DEPOSIT, TOTAL EXPORT, TOTAL EXTERNAL DEBT, TOTAL IMPORT, TOTAL IMPORTS, TOTAL INVESTMENT, TRADE BALANCE, TRADE DEFICIT, TRADING, UNCERTAINTY, UPWARD PRESSURE, WORLD ECONOMY