Historical consumption and future demand for fish and fishery products: exploratory calculations for the years 2015/2030.
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Dr Ye’s study provides an estimate of global demand for fish as food in the years 2015 and 2030. Global demand is obtained by adding estimates made for 17 groups of countries. After a review of consumption during the last 35 years, Dr Ye projects demand using observed statistical relationships between per caput consumption (live weight equivalent) and per caput GDP, a choice dictated by the paucity of historical data on price. For regions where a relationship (established through regre ssion analysis) between observed per caput consumption and per caput GDP does not have statistical significance, or leads to clearly unrealistic results, a time trend regression was used. The author presents his results grouping the 17-country groups into six continents. He ends by discussing the significance of his findings, stressing that they represent potential demand; actual demand will be determined by the supply response to prices.