THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF GENETICALLY MODIFIED ORGANISMS IN SMALL DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
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The expected benefits from herbicide resistant transgenic rice in Uruguay are estimated with stochastic simulation techniques. Economic surplus methods that account for private profits are used to measure the magnitude and distribution of the benefits between producers and a multinational firm. Further, the adoption rate of transgenic rice is endogenous in the model and depends on the expected profitability of the technology. The results show that the potential benefits from the technology are relatively small because of the small production base. Multinational firms are, therefore, unlikely to develop locally adapted transgenic rice varieties without strategic partnerships with local institutions.