Forecasting threats to the food chain affecting food security in countries and regions
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During the period July to September 2020, Food Chain Crisis (FCC) threats are expected to occur in Africa, the Americas, Asia and Europe, where they may persist within a country, spread to neighbouring countries, remain latent, or re-emerge or amplify.
The dynamics and likelihood of the occurrence of FCC threats depend on a number of risk factors or drivers. These include agro-ecological factors (intensive farming systems, deforestation, overgrazing, etc.), climate change and variability (droughts, extreme weather events, flooding, heavy rains, heat waves, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation – ENSO), changes in vegetation cover, water temperature, human behaviour (cultural practices, conflicts and civil insecurity, trade, etc.) and natural disasters.
In relation to food security, and according to the last “Crop prospects and food situation” report (July 2020), FAO estimates that globally, 44 countries (34 in Africa, 8 in Asia and 2 in the Americas) need external assistance for food. Persisting conflicts continue to be the dominant factor driving high levels of severe food insecurity. Weather shocks have also adversely affected food availability and access. FCC threats can compound food insecurity in fragile countries stricken by weather shocks and conflicts.
Main food chain threats:
Twenty-six plant and forest pests and diseases, locusts and animal and aquatic diseases were monitored and forecasted by FAO experts for the period July to September 2020. A total of 243 forecasts were conducted in 123 countries.