A species-specific approach for tracing Brazilian timber origins and associated illegality risks across the supply-chain
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The rise in global demand for agricultural and forest commodities have created unparalleled pressure on forests, leading to loss of carbon, biodiversity, ecosystems services, and livelihoods.
While we know more about how commodity production and trade is linked to deforestation, such connection still largely unexplored for forest degradation despite the threat rivaling or exceeding that of deforestation. Timber extraction is the largest direct anthropic driver of forest degradation and its illegal share a pervasive source across domestic and international markets. Here we seek to lay the foundations for connecting localities of production to consumption, presenting a species- specific approach to quantifying sources of illegality risk across the supply chain. By adapting material flow analyses and environmentally extended input-output models to timber originating from Brazilian native forests, we demonstrate how distinct risks can be mapped and quantified. We focus on the Amazon state of Pará; a leading producer of timber, of high-value ipê, and contested forest frontier. Data on logging permits and state-level Document of Forest Origin are used to estimate sources of illegality risk associated with overstated ipê yields, unclear forest of origin and discrepancies resulting from missing physical flows. We find that less than one fourth of all ipê volume entering supply-chains in 2017-2019 is risk-free. The area explored under logging permits and volumes entering the supply chain suggest an average yield of 1.6 m3ha-1, which exceeds the 90% percentile of reported ipê tree densities for region. Nearly a third of supply-chain flows cannot be accounted for by Pará’s state-level system. Despite important limitations to this study, it puts forward an approach that can be refined and leveraged to monitor illegally logged timber entry- points and can
contribute to increased transparency in Brazilian timber supply chains.
Keywords: timber illegality, forest-risk commodity, environmentally-extended input-output models, Handroanthus spp., Brazilian Amazon