Assessing the impacts of temperature variations on rice yield in China
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Using a unique county-level panel on single-season rice yield and daily weather
outcomes from 1996 to 2009, we examined the impacts of temperature variations on rice yield in
China. We have five key findings: (i) in contrast to nearly all previous studies focusing on rice
production in tropical/subtropical regions, we discovered that higher daily minimum temperature
during the vegetative stage increased rice yield; (ii) consistent with previous assessments, we
found that increased daily maximum temperature during the vegetative and ripening stages
reduced rice yield; (iii) the impacts of solar radiation and rainfall on rice yield differed across the
plant’s growth stages; (iv) estimated weather effects on yield differed by rice variety; and (v)
weather variations caused a net economic loss of $21.6-88.2 million during the sample period,
depending on model specifications and econometric estimation strategies.