Philippines Quarterly Update, March 2012
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World Bank, Manila
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The Philippine economy grew slower than
expected at 3.7 percent in 2011, held back by weak public
spending and external demand. In the fourth quarter (Q4),
growth slightly improved at 3.7 percent. As in past
quarters, growth was driven by remittance-fueled household
consumption, which grew by 6.7 percent. The
government's disbursement acceleration plan was
partially successful and contributed 1.3 percentage points
(ppt) to gross domestic product, or GDP growth in Q4, up
from 0.3 ppt in Q3, but this was not enough to push growth
up to the targeted level of around five percent. On the
production side, the services sector, including the
fast-growing business process outsourcing (BPO) industry,
continued to drive growth. Industry, in particular exports
manufacturing, was buffeted by weaker demand, while
agriculture suffered from typhoon damages, highlighting the
need to improve disaster and risk management. The country is
benefiting from strong macroeconomic fundamentals, political
stability, and a popular government that is seen by many as
committed to improving governance and reducing poverty.
Several reforms have successfully started, notably in public
financial management. However, the window of opportunity is
narrowing given elections in 2013 and 2016 and the
historical difficulty of moving forward with reforms when
the campaign period kicks in. Now is the time to implement
the reforms needs to accelerate growth, create jobs, and
reduce poverty.
Palabras clave
Output, Demand, Employment, Poverty, Poverty reduction, Financial markets, Inflation, Poverty reduction, Monetary policy, Fiscal policy, Economic costs of disasters, Conflict and displacement, Real estate, Disbursements, Absorptive capacity