Seasonal climate and agricultural outlook for Afghanistan
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Afghanistan is expected to experience continued climatic variability, with ENSO-neutral conditions persisting and a possible shift toward El Niño later in 2026. In May, rainfall is forecast to be below average and unevenly distributed, particularly in eastern and northeastern regions.Crop development remains generally stable, supported by adequate soil moisture from earlier spring rains, with most farmers reporting normal to above-normal progress. However, rainfed wheat yields will depend on the occurrence of one to two well-timed rainfall events during the grain-filling stage.Above-average temperatures are likely to accelerate crop growth but will also increase evapotranspiration, heightening moisture stress where rainfall is limited. Conditions may also favor wheat yellow rust, especially in northern areas, while locust and Sunn pest risks remain localized and controlled.Rangeland conditions have improved since early March, benefiting livestock, though pasture growth remains uneven in parts of the north and west. While overall production prospects are stable in the near term, risks are expected to shift toward water availability constraints later in the season, particularly for rangelands and irrigation-dependent systems.