Potential impact of future climates on rice production in Ecuador determined using Kobayashi´s 'Very Simple Model'.

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dc.contributorDIEGO PORTALANZA, UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE SANTA MARIA; FINBARR G. HORGAN, ECOLAVERNA INTEGRAL RESTORATION ECOLOGY, UNIVERSIDAD CATÓLICA DEL MAULE, THE UNIVERSITY OF EDINBURGH; VALERIA POHLMANN, UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE PELOTAS; SANTIAGO VIANNA CUADRA, CNPTIA; MALENA TORRES-ULLOA, ESCUELA SUPERIOR POLITÉCNICA DEL LITORAL; EDUARDO ALAVA, ESCUELA SUPERIOR POLITÉCNICA DEL LITORAL; SIMONE FERRAZ, UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE SANTA MARIA; ANGELICA DURIGON, UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE SANTA MARIA.
dc.creatorPORTALANZA, D.
dc.creatorHORGAN, F. G.
dc.creatorPOHLMANN, V.
dc.creatorCUADRA, S. V.
dc.creatorTORRES-ULLOA, M.
dc.creatorALAVA, E.
dc.creatorFERRAZ, S.
dc.creatorDURIGON, A.
dc.date2022-11-03T12:08:34Z
dc.date2022-11-03T12:08:34Z
dc.date2022-11-03
dc.date2022
dc.date.accessioned2026-07-07T04:17:09Z
dc.descriptionAbstract: Rice (Oryza sativa L.) is the main staple food of more than 50% of the world´s population. However, global production may need to increase by more than 70% before 2050 to meet global food requirements despite increasing challenges due to environmental degradation, a changing climate, and extreme weather events. Rice production in Ecuador, mainly concentrated in lowland tropical plains, declined in recent years. In this paper, we aim to calibrate and validate KobayashÍ´s 'Very Simple Model' (VSM) and, using downscaled corrected climate data, to quantify the potential impact of climate change on rice yields for Ecuador´s two main rice-growing provinces. The negative impact is expected to be highest (up to -67%; 2946 tons) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, with a lower impact under RCP 2.6 (-36%; 1650 tons) yield reduction in the Guayas province. A positive impact on yield is predicted for Los Ríos Province (up to 9%; 161 tons) under RCP 8.5. These different impacts indicate the utility of fine-scale analyses using simple models to make predictions that are relevant to regional production scenarios. Our prediction of possible changes in rice productivity can help policymakers define a variety of requirements to meet the demands of a changing climate.
dc.identifierAgriculture, v. 12, n. 1, 1828, Nov. 2022.
dc.identifierhttp://www.alice.cnptia.embrapa.br/alice/handle/doc/1147973
dc.identifierhttps://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture12111828
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/456412
dc.languageeng
dc.rightsopenAccess
dc.subjectModelagem agrícola
dc.subjectMudanças climáticas
dc.subjectAgricultural modeling
dc.subjectRCPs
dc.subjectYield gaps
dc.subjectOryza Sativa
dc.subjectRice
dc.subjectClimate change
dc.titlePotential impact of future climates on rice production in Ecuador determined using Kobayashi´s 'Very Simple Model'.
dc.typeArtigo de periódico

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