Cote d’Ivoire : From Success to Failure - A Story of Growth, Specialization, and the Terms of Trade

Bogetic, Zeljko; Noer, John; Espina, Carlos

Cote d’Ivoire : From Success to Failure - A Story of Growth, Specialization, and the Terms of Trade

Autores

Bogetic, Zeljko

Noer, John

Espina, Carlos

Editor

World Bank, Washington, DC

Descripción

Real GDP per capita and capital stock in Cote d'Ivoire grew strongly from 1960 to 1979, but have declined ever since, for twenty-five years. As a result, the country has traveled a full circle from economic success to failure in little more than a generation. What are the long-term factors behind this dismal growth story? Are the Ivorian development problems mostly of recent origin? Or there are more fundamental, economic factors that explain its long term performance? Four principal conclusions are as follows: First, Cote d'Ivoire's long-term growth performance is not fully explained by temporary factors (e.g., CFA overvaluation or recent conflict). Longer term factors such as capital accumulation, productivity, and terms of trade are key to understanding the country's performance as is the policy of specialization in a single commodity--cocoa. Second, the long-term decline in per capita output started well before the currency overvaluation, and at a time of political stability, and is related to a major, secular deterioration in terms of trade that started after 1976. Third, total factor productivity estimates indicate that TFP per capita also grew until it hit a plateau in 1976-78, and then shrank thereafter, despite gains in human capital accumulation. Fourth, Cote d'Ivoire has pursued a policy of specialization in cocoa beans but this bet on a single commodity has ultimately failed. The strategy that brought prosperity during the 1970s resulted in a growth failure when cocoa prices began declining since 1976.

Palabras clave

ACCOUNTING, AGRICULTURE, ARREARS, AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH, AVERAGE GROWTH, BASE YEAR, BENCHMARK, BENCHMARKS, CALCULATIONS, CAPITAL ACCUMULATION, CAPITAL COST, CAPITAL FORMATION, CAPITAL GOODS, CAPITAL GROWTH, CAPITAL INVESTMENT, CAPITAL INVESTMENTS, CAPITAL STOCK, CAPITAL STOCK GROWTH, CAPITAL STOCKS, CAPITAL TIMES, CENTRAL BANK, CIVIL WAR, COMMODITIES, COMMODITY, COMMODITY EXCHANGES, COMMODITY EXPORTS, COMMODITY PRICE, COMMODITY PRICES, COMPETITIVENESS, CONSTANT RETURNS, CONSTANT RETURNS TO SCALE, CONSUMER, CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, CONTRIBUTION, CONTRIBUTIONS, CURRENCY, CURRENT ACCOUNT, CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE, DEMOGRAPHIC, DEPRECIATION, DEVALUATION, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPMENT CENTER, DEVELOPMENT POLICY, DIVERSIFICATION, DIVERSIFICATION STRATEGY, ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC HISTORY, ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT, ECONOMIC PRODUCTIVITY, ECONOMIC SUCCESS, ECONOMIC TRENDS, EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT, ELASTICITY, ENROLLMENT, EXCHANGE RATE, EXCHANGE RATES, EXPECTED VALUE, EXPECTED VALUES, EXPORTS, FACTOR ACCUMULATION, FACTORS OF PRODUCTION, FARMERS, FUNCTIONAL FORM, FUNCTIONAL FORMS, FUTURES, GDP PER CAPITA, GENDER, GENDER EQUALITY, GENERAL POPULATION, GINI COEFFICIENT, GLOBAL MARKET, GNP, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, GROWTH PERFORMANCE, GROWTH RATE, GROWTH RATE OF OUTPUT, GROWTH RATES, HOUSEHOLDS, HUMAN CAPITAL, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, INCOMES, INFLATION, INITIAL CAPITAL, INSTITUTIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE, INTERNATIONAL BANK, INTERNATIONAL PRICES, INVENTORY, INVESTMENT EXPENSES, LABOR FORCE, LABOR FORCE GROWTH, LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION, LAND USE, LARGE COMPANIES, LIFE EXPECTANCY, LITERACY, LOCAL CURRENCY, MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE, MARGINAL PRODUCT, MARKET PERFORMANCE, MARKET SHARE, MARKETING, MODEL OF GROWTH, NATIONAL INCOME, OVERVALUATION, PER CAPITA INCOME, PHYSICAL CAPITAL, POLITICAL STABILITY, POVERTY RATE, POVERTY RATES, PRICE DECLINES, PRICE ELASTICITY, PRICE LEVEL, PRICE LEVELS, PRIMARY EDUCATION, PRODUCTION FUNCTION, PRODUCTION INCREASES, PRODUCTION INPUTS, PRODUCTIVITY, PROSPERITY, PUBLIC EXPENDITURE, PUBLIC EXPENDITURES, RAPID POPULATION GROWTH, RATE OF GROWTH, RATE OF RETURN, RATES OF GROWTH, RE-INVESTMENT, REAL EXCHANGE RATES, REAL GDP, REAL GROWTH RATES, RECEIPTS, REFUGEES, REGIONAL TRADE, REGRESSION ANALYSIS, SHARE OF OUTPUT, SHARE OF WORLD OUTPUT, SOCIAL CONSEQUENCES, SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA, SUNK COSTS, TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS, TFP, TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY, TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY ANALYSIS, TOTAL OUTPUT, UNEMPLOYMENT, UNION, URBAN AREAS, URBAN POPULATION, URBANIZATION, VALUE ADDED, VALUE OF OUTPUT, VOLATILITY, WAGE, WORK FORCE, WORLD ECONOMY, WORLD MARKET, WORLD MARKETS