Avaliação da precipitação projetada pelos modelos climáticos globais para o Sudeste do Brasil utilizando SIG.
No hay miniatura disponible
Fecha
Título de la revista
ISSN de la revista
Título del volumen
Editor
Resumen
Descripción
Global climatic models (GCM) are considered the best tool to project climate change scenarios, despite their uncertainties. Projections for each region are different and vary among seasons. The aim of this study was to evaluate projections of precipitation from 15 GCMs provided by the IPCC-AR4 at Southeastern Brazil for 2071-2100 period, scenario A2. A geographic database has been structured with projected climate data and the observed data obtained from the Climate Research Unit. Principal component and cluster analysis were applied for grouping models with similar performance, based on bias rainfall projections, after bias correction. Models were clusterd accordingly to spatial similarity of projections, for each season. Spatial similarities varied among seasons.
Palabras clave
SIG, Análise de agrupamento hierárquico, Climatologia, Mudança Climática, Climate change, Cluster analysis, Geographic information systems