Assessing impacts of declines in the world price of tobacco on China, Malawi, Turkey, and Zimbabwe

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dc.creatorDiao, Xinshen
dc.creatorRobinson, Sherman
dc.creatorThomas, Marcelle
dc.creatorWobst, Peter
dc.date2002
dc.date2024-10-24T12:42:18Z
dc.date2024-10-24T12:42:18Z
dc.date.accessioned2026-06-27T15:18:54Z
dc.descriptionThis study quantitatively analyzes the general equilibrium effects of declines in world demand for tobacco products. The study finds that tobacco exports and production in the three developing countries, Malawi, Zimbabwe, and Turkey, would be badly hit if world tobacco prices fall due to the decline in tobacco demand. Moreover, for a given decrease in the world tobacco price, the more important the tobacco sector is in an economy, the worse the tobacco sector is hit. Tobacco is quite important to the Malawian and Zimbabwean economies as tobacco production and trade accounted for, respectively, 17% and 43% of agricultural GDP and tobacco exports accounted for 50% and 35% of national exports in these two countries. The negative effects of a decline in world tobacco prices on the Malawian and Zimbabwean economies are much larger than that on the Turkish economy. In the case of China, tobacco production, marketing, cigarette processing, distribution, and foreign trade are strictly controlled by the government and tobacco trade accounted for a small share of production and consumption. Thus, the decline in the world tobacco prices would hardly affect China’s tobacco sector. The study shows that it is highly risky for a developing country to highly depend on exports of a single agricultural commodity. To reduce such risk, a country has to create a more diversified and flexible export structure.
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/155570
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/100883
dc.languageen
dc.publisherInternational Food Policy Research Institute
dc.rightsOpen Access
dc.sourceDiao, Xinshen; Robinson, Sherman; Thomas, Marcelle; Wobst, Peter. 2002. Assessing impacts of declines in the world price of tobacco on China, Malawi, Turkey, and Zimbabwe. TMD Discussion Paper 91. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/155570
dc.subjectequilibrium theory
dc.subjecttobacco
dc.subjectprices
dc.subjectexports
dc.subjectdeveloping countries
dc.subjectagriculture
dc.subjectdiversification
dc.subjecteconomic aspects
dc.subjecteconomic situation
dc.titleAssessing impacts of declines in the world price of tobacco on China, Malawi, Turkey, and Zimbabwe
dc.typeWorking Paper

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Instituto Internacional de Investigación sobre Políticas Alimentarias (IFPRI)