MAKING DECISIONS IN TURBULENT TIMES: AN ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK AND DECISION TOOLS
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The business climate for the agricultural sector is characterized by increased uncertainty and “unanticipated surprises,” such as new government regulations, new technology and product introductions, mergers and acquisitions, nonperformance by supply chain partners, and changes
in interest and exchange rates. This manuscript uses a real case problem to describe a set of tools(such as scenario analysis, risk scorecarding and heat mapping, payoff matrices, decision trees,
and options portfolio mapping) available to use for making strategic decisions in such a business
climate.