Analysis of Commodity Program Adjustments for U.S. Rice in Stochastic Framework
No hay miniatura disponible
Fecha
Autores
Título de la revista
ISSN de la revista
Título del volumen
Editor
Resumen
Descripción
Potential adjustments in U.S. commodity program for rice are evaluated in this paper using stochastic
analysis in a global modeling framework. Corresponding threshold and loss-compensatory increases
in target price and loan rates are determined with assumed outright and gradual elimination of direct
payments. Results show that if direct payments (DP) are eliminated in 2012, a 23% increase in both
the target price (TP) and loan rate (LR) triggers counter-cyclical payments (CCP) 80% of the time;
and it will take an increase of 48% in TP and LR to generate CCP enough to compensate for the loss
in total DP. If DP is gradually removed over 5 years, the trigger and compensatory increases in TP
and LR are 41% and 46%, respectively. Furthermore, if DP is eliminated outright and TP maintained,
an increase of 71% in LR triggers loan deficiency payments (LDP) 75% of the time; and it will take
an increase of 130% in LR to generate enough LDP to recoup the total loss in DP. Under gradual
removal of DP, the trigger and compensatory increases in LR are 71% and 92%, respectively.