Armenia : Implications of the Global Economic Crisis for Poverty
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World Bank
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The global economic crisis seriously
threatens the economic growth and poverty reduction that
Armenia achieved in recent years. The most recent data
indicate that the economy is now shrinking, with prospects
worsening in 2009 and 2010 when the full impact of the
crisis is expected to unfold. These developments are a
setback for Armenia after a decade of nearly double-digit
growth and substantial poverty reduction. Depending on the
depth of the crisis in Armenia, in its main trading
partners, and in its migrant workers' host countries,
and depending on the effectiveness of policy responses, the
crisis could have a protracted negative effect on
Armenians' living standards. The economic downturn,
coming on the heels of the food and fuel price increases
last year, will have particularly difficult consequences for
the poor and vulnerable who have limited coping means to
deal with these successive shocks. The note identifies the
main channels of transmission to households of the current
global economic crisis and estimates its potential impact on
poverty in Armenia. Given uncertainties regarding the scale
of the crisis and how households are likely to cope, the
note is intended to provide indicative estimates of the
poverty impact of the crisis, rather than precise estimates.
These estimates are made by simulating the effects of the
anticipated slowdown on household consumption using data
from the 2007 Integrated Living Conditions Survey (ILCS).
The key messages that come out of the analysis are that the
crisis will have potentially serious implications for
poverty and that this calls for significant responses by the
Government of Armenia and its development partners. The
government is taking a number of steps to provide protection
to the poor, including the protection of public spending on
social protection and other pro-poor programs and to improve
the targeting efficiency of the programs. These measures
should help lessen the impact of the crisis on the poor and
the vulnerable.
Palabras clave
ABSOLUTE POVERTY, ACCOUNTING, AGGREGATE POVERTY, AGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT, AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT, AGRICULTURAL SECTOR, ASSET VALUES, BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, BANKING SECTOR, BENEFICIARIES, CAPITAL FLOWS, CAPITAL INFLOWS, CENTRAL BANK, CHANGES IN POVERTY, CHECKS, COMMERCIAL BANKS, COMMODITY PRICES, CONSUMER GOODS, CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, CONSUMPTION BASKET, CONSUMPTION GROWTH, COUNTRY LEVEL, CREDIT MARKET, CREDIT MARKETS, DATA AVAILABILITY, DEVALUATION, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS, DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS, DEVELOPMENT REPORT, DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH, DOMESTIC CREDIT, ECONOMIC CONDITIONS, ECONOMIC DOWNTURNS, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC SHOCKS, ECONOMICS LETTERS, EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT, EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES, EXCHANGE RATE, EXCHANGE RATES, EXPORT MARKETS, EXTREME POVERTY, EXTREME POVERTY LINE, FAMILY INCOMES, FAMILY MEMBERS, FINANCES, FINANCIAL CRISES, FINANCIAL CRISIS, FINANCIAL MARKETS, FINANCIAL SHOCK, FOOD PRICES, FOREIGN BANKS, FOREIGN CAPITAL, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS, FOREIGN FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, FOREIGN INVESTMENT, GOVERNMENT REVENUES, GROWTH ELASTICITY, GROWTH PROCESS, GROWTH PROSPECTS, GROWTH RATE, GROWTH RATES, HEADCOUNT POVERTY, HIGH INEQUALITY, HIGH INEQUALITY DEVELOPMENT COUNTRIES, HOST COUNTRIES, HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION, HOUSEHOLD DATA, HOUSEHOLD HEAD, HOUSEHOLD INCOME, HOUSEHOLD LEVEL DATA, HOUSEHOLD LIVING STANDARDS, HOUSEHOLD SURVEY, HOUSEHOLD WELFARE, HOUSING, HUMAN DEVELOPMENT, IMPACT ON POVERTY, INCIDENCE OF POVERTY, INDUSTRIAL SECTOR, INEQUALITY, INEQUALITY RELATIONSHIP, INFLATION, INSURANCE, INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL, INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MARKETS, INVESTMENT ACTIVITIES, LABOR MARKET, LABOR MARKET PROGRAMS, LABOR MARKETS, LIVING STANDARD, LOANS TO COUNTRIES, LOCAL CURRENCY, LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES, MACROECONOMIC DATA, MEAN INCOME, MIGRANT LABOR, MONETARY FUND, MONEY TRANSFERS, NATIONAL ACCOUNTS, NATIONAL POVERTY, NEGATIVE EFFECT, NUTRITION, OUTPUT GROWTH, OUTREACH CAMPAIGNS, PENSIONS, PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION, POLICY MAKERS, POLICY RESEARCH, POLICY RESPONSES, POOR, POOR COMMUNITIES, POOR FAMILIES, POOR HOUSEHOLD, POOR HOUSEHOLDS, POOR PEOPLE, POOR POPULATION, POPULATION GROUP, POVERTY ASSESSMENT, POVERTY DECLINE, POVERTY ESTIMATES, POVERTY GAP, POVERTY IMPACT, POVERTY INCIDENCE, POVERTY INCREASE, POVERTY INCREASES, POVERTY INDICES, POVERTY LEVELS, POVERTY LINE, POVERTY LINES, POVERTY LINKAGES, POVERTY MEASURES, POVERTY PROFILE, POVERTY RATES, POVERTY REDUCTION, POVERTY SEVERITY, POVERTY STATUS, POVERTY THRESHOLD, PRICE CHANGE, PRICE CHANGES, PRIVATE CAPITAL, PRIVATE TRANSFERS, PRO-POOR, PROGRAMMATIC POVERTY ASSESSMENT, PUBLIC SPENDING, PUBLIC WORKS, PUBLIC WORKS PROGRAMS, PURCHASING POWER, REDUCTION IN POVERTY, REFORM EFFORTS, REFORM PROGRAMS, REGIONAL AVERAGE, RELATIVE PRICES, REMITTANCE, REMITTANCES, RETURNS, RISK MANAGEMENT, RURAL, RURAL AREAS, SAFETY NET, SAFETY NET PROGRAMS, SAVINGS, SCHOOL ATTENDANCE, SECTORAL COMPOSITION, SOCIAL PROTECTION, SOCIAL SAFETY NETS, SUBSISTENCE, TARGETING, TAX, TOTAL POVERTY, TOTAL POVERTY LINE, TRADING, TRANSACTION, TRANSACTION COSTS, UNEMPLOYMENT, URBAN AREAS, URBAN WORKERS, VULNERABLE HOUSEHOLDS