Trade Reforms and Welfare : An Ex-Post Decomposition of Income in Vietnam
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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This paper analyzes the impact of trade reforms on household welfare. In particular, it studies the importance of each of the links that together constitute the impact using data from the Vietnamese experience in the 1990s. The implementation of trade reforms in the 1990s, most noteworthy of which was the liberalization of rice, resulted in substantial improvement in welfare as evidenced by the drastic decline in poverty. Using analytical and empirical methods, the author examines the role of each channel (direct versus indirect) in this improvement for different groups of households. Results indicate that the growth has been broad based and pro-poor. Poorer households experienced more growth for each and every group analyzed. And contrary to the standard literature, net buyer households had more growth compared with net sellers, emphasizing the importance of indirect links. Decomposition of the growth shows that for rural households, both the direct effect and the multiplier effect drive growth while the multiplier effect was key in urban areas. The importance of the secondary effects underscores the need for a broader model to estimate the impact of trade reforms fully.
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AGRICULTURAL ADVICE, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL WAGES, AVERAGE GROWTH, AVERAGE INCOME, CALORIC INTAKE, CASH CROP INCOME, COMMODITY, CONSUMERS, COUNTERFACTUAL, DEPENDENT VARIABLE, DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS, ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, ECONOMICS RESEARCH, EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS, EMPLOYMENT IN AGRICULTURE, EMPLOYMENT INCOME, EXPORTS, EXTREME POVERTY, FACTOR INCOME, FARMERS, FOOD BUYERS, FOOD CROP, FOOD CROP PRODUCTION, FOOD CROPS, FOOD ITEMS, FOOD PRICE, FOOD PRICES, GROUP INEQUALITY, GROWTH RATE, GROWTH RATES, HOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICS, HOUSEHOLD DATA, HOUSEHOLD HEAD, HOUSEHOLD HEADS, HOUSEHOLD INCOME, HOUSEHOLD LEVEL, HOUSEHOLD SIZE, HOUSEHOLD WELFARE, INCIDENCE OF POVERTY, INCOME, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, INCOME GROWTH, INCOME LEVELS, INCOME ON FOOD, INCOME SHARE, INCOME SOURCE, INCOME SOURCES, INCOMES, INEQUALITY, INEQUALITY MEASURES, INFLATION RATE, LABOR DEMAND, LABOR MARKET, LABOR MARKETS, LAND SIZE, LAND TITLING, LIVESTOCK INCOME, LIVING STANDARDS, LOW INCOME