Identifying Abnormal Returns to Food and Agribusiness Stocks on Key Farm Policy Legislative Dates
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The efficient market hypothesis would suggest that stock prices incorporate the
information revealed in the public process of creating legislation as the debate
occurred. Thus, there should be no abnormal returns to agribusiness stocks on key
legislative dates when drafting and altering the farm bill. Using an event study
methodology, key legislative dates are tested for abnormal returns to firms that
supply inputs to or process outputs of agricultural producers. Typically, agribusinesses
react on the date legislation emerges from the joint House and Senate
conference committee.