What Explains the Low Survival Rate of Developing Country Export Flows?

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dc.creatorSaborowski, Christian
dc.creatorBrenton, Paul
dc.creatorvon Uexkull, Erik
dc.date2013-05-16T19:15:25Z
dc.date2013-05-16T19:15:25Z
dc.date2011-03-30
dc.date.accessioned2026-07-01T01:14:20Z
dc.descriptionSuccessful export growth and diversification require not only entry into new export products and markets but also the survival and growth of export flows. For a cross-country dataset of product-level bilateral export flows, exporting is found to be a perilous activity, especially in low-income countries. Unobserved individual heterogeneity in product-level export flow data prevails even when a wide range of observed country and product characteristics are controlled for. This questions previous studies that used the Cox proportional hazards model to analyze export survival. Following Meyer (1990), a Prentice-Gloeckler (1978) model is estimated, amended with a gamma mixture distribution summarizing unobserved individual heterogeneity. The empirical results confirm the significance of a range of product- as well as country-specific factors in determining the survival of new export flows. Important for policymaking is the finding of the value of learning-by-doing for export survival: experience with exporting the same product to other markets or different products to the same market is found to strongly increase the chance of export survival. A better understanding of such learning effects could substantially improve the effectiveness of export promotion strategies.
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.identifierWorld Bank Economic Review
dc.identifier1564-698X
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/13450
dc.identifier10.1596/13449
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/416380
dc.languageen_US
dc.publisherWorld Bank
dc.relationWorld Bank Economic Review
dc.relationWorld Bank Economic Review;24(3)
dc.rightsCC BY-NC-ND 3.0 IGO
dc.rightshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/igo
dc.rightsWorld Bank
dc.subjectbilateral trade
dc.subjecteconometric analysis
dc.subjecteconomic size
dc.subjectexpected return
dc.subjectexport growth
dc.subjectexports
dc.subjectfixed costs
dc.subjectGDP
dc.subjectincome
dc.subjectincome groups
dc.subjectincome levels
dc.subjectinternational trade
dc.subjectmiddle income countries
dc.subjectperfect information
dc.subjectproduction costs
dc.subjecttrade diversion
dc.subjecttrade liberalization
dc.subjecttrade policy
dc.subjecttransition economies
dc.subjectwealth
dc.subjectexport survival
dc.subjectCox proportional hazard
dc.subjectlow-income countries
dc.titleWhat Explains the Low Survival Rate of Developing Country Export Flows?
dc.typeJournal Article
dc.typeArticle de journal
dc.typeArtículo de revista

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