Growth Poles and Multipolarity
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This paper develops an empirical measure
of growth poles and uses it to examine the phenomenon of
multipolarity. The authors formally define several
alternative measures, provide theoretical justifications for
these measures, and compute polarity values for nation
states in the global economy. The calculations suggest that
China, Western Europe, and the United States have been
important growth poles over the broad course of world
history, and in modern economic history the United States,
Japan, Germany, and China have had prominent periods of
growth polarity. The paper goes on to analyze the economic
and institutional determinants, both at the proximate and
fundamental level, that underlie this measure of polarity,
as well as compute measures of dispersion in growth polarity
shares for the major growth poles.
Palabras clave
ABSOLUTE TERMS, ACTUAL GROWTH, ALLOCATION OF RESOURCES, ANNUAL GROWTH, BENCHMARK, BILATERAL TRADE, CAPITAL ACCOUNT, CAPITAL FLOWS, CAPITAL INFLOWS, CAPITAL OUTFLOWS, CHILD MORTALITY, CHILD MORTALITY RATE, COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE, COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGES, COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS, CONTROL VARIABLES, COUNTRY VARIATION, CULTURAL CHANGE, CURRENCY, CYCLICAL FACTORS, DATA AVAILABILITY, DEMOCRACY, DENSITY FUNCTION, DEPENDENCY RATIO, DEPENDENCY RATIOS, DEPENDENT VARIABLE, DETERMINANTS OF GROWTH, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPING WORLD, DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS, DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS, DEVELOPMENT POLICY, DEVELOPMENT REPORT, DIRECTION OF TRADE, DUMMY VARIABLES, DYNAMIC PANEL, DYNAMIC PANEL MODELS, ECONOMETRIC MODELS, ECONOMETRICS, ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, ECONOMIC CONCENTRATION, ECONOMIC CRISES, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC HISTORY, ECONOMIC INSTITUTIONS, ECONOMIC INTEGRATION, ECONOMIC LITERATURE, ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE, ECONOMIC POLICY, ECONOMIC POWER, ECONOMIC REFORM, ECONOMIC RELATIONS, ECONOMIC RESEARCH, ECONOMIC SIZE, ECONOMIC STUDIES, ECONOMIES OF SCALE, EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT, ELDERLY, ELDERLY POPULATION, EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE, EMPIRICAL LITERATURE, EMPIRICAL MODEL, EMPLOYMENT EQUATIONS, ESTIMATION METHOD, ESTIMATION STRATEGY, EXCHANGE RATE, EXPLANATORY VARIABLES, EXPORTER, EXPORTS, EXTERNALITIES, FINANCIAL CRISIS, FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT, FINANCIAL FLOWS, FINANCIAL LIBERALIZATION, FINANCIAL MARKET, FINANCIAL OPENNESS, FIXED EFFECTS, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, FORMAL ANALYSIS, FUNDAMENTAL DETERMINANTS, GDP, GDP PER CAPITA, GEOGRAPHIC LOCALIZATION, GINI COEFFICIENT, GLOBAL CAPITAL, GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT, GLOBAL ECONOMIC GROWTH, GLOBAL ECONOMY, GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT, GLOBAL LEVEL, GLOBAL MARKETS, GLOBAL POLICY, GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE, GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES, GRAVITY MODEL, GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION, GROWTH INVESTMENT, GROWTH LITERATURE, GROWTH OF NATIONS, GROWTH PROCESS, GROWTH RATE, GROWTH RATES, GROWTH REGRESSIONS, HOME COUNTRIES, HOST COUNTRY, HUMAN CAPITAL, IFS, IMMIGRANT, IMMIGRANTS, IMMIGRATION, INCOME LEVELS, INCOME PER CAPITA, INCREASING RETURNS, INCREASING RETURNS TO SCALE, INDUSTRIAL ECONOMIES, INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION, INTERMEDIATE GOODS, INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC RELATIONS, INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL STATISTICS, INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION, INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS, INTERNATIONAL TRADE, INTERNATIONALIZATION, LABOR SHORTAGES, LAGGED DEPENDENT, LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES, LEVEL OF DEVELOPMENT, LEVERAGE, LIFE EXPECTANCY, LIQUIDITY, LIQUIDITY CONSTRAINTS, LONG-RUN GROWTH, LONG-TERM GROWTH, MARKET POWERS, MARKET TURNOVER, MIGRATION, MIGRATION DATA, MIGRATION FLOWS, MODERN ECONOMIC GROWTH, MODERN ECONOMIC HISTORY, MONETARY ECONOMICS, MONOPOLISTIC COMPETITION, MORTALITY, MORTALITY RATE, MULTINATIONAL CORPORATION, MULTIPLIERS, NATURAL DISASTERS, NEGATIVE EFFECT, NEW INSTITUTIONAL ECONOMICS, NORMAL DISTRIBUTION, OIL EXPORTERS, OLD-AGE, OPEN ECONOMIES, PANEL REGRESSIONS, PATENTS, PER CAPITA INCOME, PER CAPITA INCOME LEVELS, PER CAPITA INCOMES, POLICY DISCUSSIONS, POLICY RESEARCH, POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER, POLITICAL ECONOMY, POLITICAL POWER, POPULATION GROWTH, POSITIVE SPILLOVER, POSITIVE SPILLOVER EFFECTS, PRIMARY SCHOOL, PRODUCTIVITY, PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH, PURCHASING POWER, PURCHASING POWER PARITY, REAL GDP, RELATIVE CONTRIBUTION, RESERVE ACCUMULATION, RESERVE HOLDINGS, ROBUSTNESS CHECKS, SECONDARY ENROLLMENT, SECONDARY SCHOOL, SIGNIFICANT IMPACT, SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION, SKILLED LABOR, SMALL COUNTRIES, SOCIAL FACTORS, SPILLOVER, STRONG CONSUMER DEMAND, TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE, TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS, TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER, TIME-INVARIANT VARIABLES, TOTAL IMPORTS, TRADE DATA, TRADE GROWTH, TRADE OPENNESS, TRADE STATISTICS, TRADE VOLUMES, TRADING PARTNERS, WAR, WARS, WEALTH, WEIGHTS, WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS