HPAI Impact on EU-27’s Import Demand for Cooked and Uncooked Poultry and Other Meats
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The article applied a Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) differential model to evaluate the impact of HPAI (H5N1) virus outbreaks on EU-27’s import demand for five meat products: cooked poultry, uncooked poultry, beef, pork, and other meats. One novel feature of this work is the division of poultry into two distinct import products—cooked (safe) and uncooked (less safe). Analysis shows that HPAI (H5N1) outbreaks had statistically significant impacts on EU27 import demand for meats, increasing cooked poultry and decreasing uncooked poultry, beef, pork, and other meats. The shift in import demand regime was permanent and statistically significant, making cooked poultry imports EU27’s largest, averaging more than 50 percent of EU imports in 2013 and 2014.