The Method of Randomization, Economic Policy, and Reasoned Intuition
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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The method of randomization has been a
major driver in the recent rise to prominence of empirical
development economics. It has helped uncover patterns and
facts that had earlier escaped attention. But it has also
given rise to heated debate and controversy. This paper
evaluates the method of randomization and concludes that,
while the method of randomization is the gold standard for
description, it is not able to demonstrate causality. Nor
does it, in itself, lead to policy conclusions, as is often
claimed by its advocates. To get to policy conclusions
requires combining the findings of randomized experiments
with human intuition, which, being founded in evolution, has
innate strengths. Moreover, even non-randomized empirical
methods combined with reasoned intuition can help in
crafting development policy.
Palabras clave
ANALOGY, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE, ATTENTION, BELIEFS, COMMON SENSE, DEBT, DECISION MAKING, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS, DEVELOPMENT POLICY, DISCOVERY, DISCRIMINATION, DISCUSSION, DOMAINS, DRUGS, ECONOMIC MODELS, ECONOMICS RESEARCH, EXTERNALITIES, FEED, GAME THEORY, GDP, GLOBAL POVERTY, HEURISTICS, HUMAN BEINGS, HUMAN KNOWLEDGE, HUMAN MIND, IDEA, IDEAS, IMAGINATION, INFERENCE, INSIGHTS, INTUITION, JOB CREATION, KIDS, KNOWLEDGE ACQUISITION, KNOWLEDGE FROM EXPERIENCE, LABOR MARKET, LARGE POPULATION, LARGE POPULATIONS, LEARNING, LOGIC, LOTTERY, MACROECONOMICS, MEMORY, MORAL RESPONSIBILITY, NUMBER OF DEATHS, OLDER PERSONS, POLICY DECISIONS, POLICY DISCUSSIONS, POLICY MAKERS, POLICY RESEARCH, POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER, POLITICAL ECONOMY, PRACTITIONERS, PRIVATE SECTOR, PROGRESS, PSYCHOLOGY, PUBLIC AFFAIRS, PUBLIC HEALTH, PUBLIC POLICY, QUALITY OF LIFE, REASONING, RESPONSIBILITY OF INDIVIDUALS, SCHOOL ATTENDANCE, SCHOOL CHILDREN, SIDE EFFECTS, SOCIAL IDENTITY, SOCIAL SCIENCES, STATUS OF WOMEN, STRATEGIC THINKING, SYMBOLS, THINKING, TRAITS, WELFARE ECONOMICS, WOMAN, WOMEN LEADERS, YOUNG WOMEN, causality, randomization