Global mapping of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 and H5Nx clade 2.3.4.4 viruses with spatial cross-validation

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dc.creatorDhingra, Madhur S
dc.creatorArtois, Jean
dc.creatorRobinson, Timothy P.
dc.creatorLinard, Catherine
dc.creatorChaiban, Celia
dc.creatorXenarios, Ioannis
dc.creatorEngler, Robin
dc.creatorLiechti, Robin
dc.creatorKuznetsov, Dmitri
dc.creatorXiao, Xiangming
dc.creatorDobschuetz, Sophie Von
dc.creatorClaes, Filip
dc.creatorNewman, Scott H
dc.creatorDauphin, Gwenaëlle
dc.creatorGilbert, Marius
dc.date2016-11-25
dc.date2023-03-10T14:36:17Z
dc.date2023-03-10T14:36:17Z
dc.date.accessioned2026-06-27T16:56:43Z
dc.descriptionGlobal disease suitability models are essential tools to inform surveillance systems and enable early detection. We present the first global suitability model of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 and demonstrate that reliable predictions can be obtained at global scale. Best predictions are obtained using spatial predictor variables describing host distributions, rather than land use or eco-climatic spatial predictor variables, with a strong association with domestic duck and extensively raised chicken densities. Our results also support a more systematic use of spatial cross-validation in large-scale disease suitability modelling compared to standard random cross-validation that can lead to unreliable measure of extrapolation accuracy. A global suitability model of the H5 clade 2.3.4.4 viruses, a group of viruses that recently spread extensively in Asia and the US, shows in comparison a lower spatial extrapolation capacity than the HPAI H5N1 models, with a stronger association with intensively raised chicken densities and anthropogenic factors.
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/129475
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/137709
dc.languageen
dc.publishereLife Sciences Publications, Ltd.
dc.rightsOpen Access
dc.sourceDhingra, Madhur S; Artois, Jean; Robinson, Timothy P.; Linard, Catherine; Chaiban, Celia; Xenarios, Ioannis; Engler, Robin; Liechti, Robin; Kuznetsov, Dmitri; Xiao, Xiangming; Dobschuetz, Sophie Von; Claes, Filip; Newman, Scott H; Dauphin, Gwenaëlle; Gilbert, Marius. 2016. Global mapping of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 and H5Nx clade 2.3.4.4 viruses with spatial cross-validation. eLife 5:
dc.subjectmapping
dc.subjectviruses
dc.subjecthighly pathogenic avian influenza
dc.subjectavian influenza
dc.subjectclade
dc.titleGlobal mapping of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 and H5Nx clade 2.3.4.4 viruses with spatial cross-validation
dc.typeJournal Article

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