A Literature Review on the Use of Expert Opinion in Probabilistic Risk Analysis

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dc.creatorOuchi, Fumika
dc.date2013-09-04T20:43:16Z
dc.date2013-09-04T20:43:16Z
dc.date2004-01
dc.date.accessioned2026-07-01T01:30:47Z
dc.descriptionRisk assessment is part of the decision making process in many fields of discipline, such as engineering, public health, environment, program management, regulatory policy, and finance. There has been considerable debate over the philosophical and methodological treatment of risk in the past few decades, ranging from its definition and classification to methods of its assessment. Probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) specifically deals with events represented by low probabilities of occurring with high levels of unfavorable consequences. Expert judgment is often a critical source of information in PRA, since empirical data on the variables of interest are rarely available. The author reviews the literature on the use of expert opinion in PRA, in particular on the approaches to eliciting and aggregating experts' assessments. The literature suggests that the methods by which expert opinions are collected and combined have a significant effect on the resulting estimates. The author discusses two types of approaches to eliciting and aggregating expert judgments-behavioral and mathematical approaches, with the emphasis on the latter. It is generally agreed that mathematical approaches tend to yield more accurate estimates than behavioral approaches. After a short description of behavioral approaches, the author discusses mathematical approaches in detail, presenting three aggregation models: non-Bayesian axiomatic models, Bayesian models, and psychological scaling models. She also discusses issues of stochastic dependence.
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.formattext/plain
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2004/01/3169814/literature-review-use-expert-opinion-probabilistic-risk-analysis
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/15623
dc.identifierhttps://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-3201
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/418778
dc.languageEnglish
dc.languageen_US
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relationPolicy Research Working Paper;No. 3201
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rightshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.rightsWorld Bank
dc.subjectACCIDENTS
dc.subjectARITHMETIC
dc.subjectBAYES THEOREM
dc.subjectBAYESIAN ANALYSIS
dc.subjectBAYESIAN STATISTICS
dc.subjectCALCULATION
dc.subjectCALIBRATION
dc.subjectCONFIDENCE INTERVALS
dc.subjectCORRELATIONS
dc.subjectCYBERNETICS
dc.subjectDECISION MAKING
dc.subjectDECISION-MAKING
dc.subjectDELPHI METHOD
dc.subjectEXPERT JUDGMENT
dc.subjectFORECASTS
dc.subjectHYPOTHESIS TESTING
dc.subjectLABORATORIES
dc.subjectMATHEMATICAL METHODS
dc.subjectMATHEMATICAL MODELING
dc.subjectMATHEMATICS
dc.subjectMAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD METHOD
dc.subjectMETHODOLOGY
dc.subjectOPERATIONS RESEARCH
dc.subjectOPTIMIZATION
dc.subjectPOINT PROCESSES
dc.subjectPRECISION
dc.subjectPREDICTIONS
dc.subjectPROBABILITIES
dc.subjectPROBABILITY
dc.subjectPROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
dc.subjectPSYCHOLOGY
dc.subjectPUBLIC HEALTH
dc.subjectRADIATION
dc.subjectRADIATION PROTECTION
dc.subjectRELIABILITY
dc.subjectRESEARCH WORKING PAPERS
dc.subjectRISK EVALUATION
dc.subjectSAFETY
dc.subjectSENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
dc.subjectSIMULATION
dc.subjectSOFTWARE PROGRAMS
dc.subjectSYSTEMS THEORY
dc.subjectTECHNIQUES
dc.subjectWASTE
dc.titleA Literature Review on the Use of Expert Opinion in Probabilistic Risk Analysis

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