Leading Transportation Indicators: Forecasting Waterborne Commerce Statistics Using Lock Performance Data
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This paper develops and applies a forecasting model for transportation data based on the leading
economic indicators literature. The specific application is to forecast river tonnages. Waterborne
commerce data reflect tonnages of commodities moved on various rivers and in various directions.
They are released after the Lock Performance Monitoring System data which reflect tonnages moving
through specific locks. The model presented here forecasts waterborne commerce data from lock
performance data. The results suggest that even a very simple model can provide precise forecasts.