The Poverty and Welfare Impacts
            of Climate Change Quantifying the Effects, Identifying the
            Adaptation Strategies

Skoufias, Emmanuel

The Poverty and Welfare Impacts of Climate Change Quantifying the Effects, Identifying the Adaptation Strategies

Autores

Skoufias, Emmanuel

Editor

Washington, DC: World Bank

Descripción

The continued decline in global poverty over the past 100 years particularly in the past three decades is a remarkable achievement. In 1981, 52 percent of the world population lived on less than $1.25 a day. By 2005, that rate had been cut in half, to 25.0 percent, and by 2008 to 22.2 percent (World Bank 2012). Preliminary estimates for 2010 indicate that the extreme poverty rate has fallen further still; if follow-up studies confirm this, the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) of halving world poverty will have been reached five years early (World Bank 2010). In recent years, poverty reduction has continued in most countries, even after the financial, food, and fuel shocks of 2008-09. Although poverty remains widespread in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, progress has been substantial: extreme poverty fell in South Asia from 54 percent in 1990 to 36 percent in 2008 (World Bank 2012). In Sub-Saharan Africa, where population growth exceeded the rate of poverty reduction, the number of extremely poor people increased from 290 million in 1990 to 356 million in 2008, yet over 2005-08, the region's poverty rate nonetheless 'fell 4.8 percentage points to less than 50 percent the largest drop in Sub-Saharan Africa since international poverty rates have been computed,' according to the latest edition of the World Development Indicators (WDI) (World Bank 2012). Although progress has been slower at the $2-a-day poverty line, the WDI noted that an increase in the absolute number of people living on $1.25-$2.00 a day reflects both the upward movement from extreme poverty and 'the vulnerabilities still faced by a great many people in the world.' climate change is likely to reduce agricultural productivity, especially in the tropical regions, and to directly affect poor people's livelihood assets including health, access to water and other natural resources, homes, and infrastructure (World Bank 2010). Moreover, increasing climatic variability manifesting as more frequent and erratic weather extremes, or 'weather shocks' will likely make poor households even more vulnerable, which could in turn exacerbate the incidence, severity, and persistence of poverty in developing countries. This volume not only surveys the research terrain concerning the effects of climate change on poverty but also looks closely at vulnerable rural populations (in a developing country, Indonesia, and in the newly industrialized Mexico) where weather shocks have measurable short term if not immediate effects on the farming livelihoods many depend on for both income and subsistence. The low-income farmers of rice in Indonesia and of corn and other staple crops in Mexico are at the human forefront of climate change.

Palabras clave

ABATEMENT POLICIES, ABSOLUTE POVERTY, AGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT, AGRICULTURAL INCOMES, AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT, AGRICULTURAL PRICES, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY, AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH, AGRICULTURAL SECTOR, AGRICULTURAL YIELDS, ALTITUDE, ARID CLIMATES, CALCULATION, CAPS, CARBON ENERGY, CASH TRANSFERS, CHANGES IN POVERTY, CHILD MORTALITY, CLIMATE, CLIMATE ACTION, CLIMATE CHANGE, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS, CLIMATE CHANGES, CLIMATE CONDITIONS, CLIMATE DAMAGE, CLIMATE DAMAGES, CLIMATE EQUILIBRIUM, CLIMATE EXTREMES, CLIMATE NEGOTIATIONS, CLIMATE PROJECTIONS, CLIMATE VARIABILITY, CLIMATE-CHANGE, CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACTS, CLIMATE-CHANGE SCENARIO, CLIMATE-CHANGE SCENARIOS, CLIMATE-RELATED RISKS, CLIMATES, CLIMATIC SHOCKS, CLIMATIC VARIABILITY, CLIMATIC VARIATION, CLIMATOLOGISTS, CO2, COLORS, CONSEQUENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE, CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE, CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE, CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, CONSUMPTION IMPACTS, CONSUMPTION PATTERNS, COOLER TEMPERATURES, COPE WITH CLIMATE CHANGE, COUNTERFACTUAL, CREDIT PROGRAMS, DAMAGES, DEGREE DAYS, DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACTS, ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC WELFARE, ECONOMICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, ECOSYSTEM, EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE, EMISSION, EMISSION ABATEMENT, EMISSION CONTROL, EMISSIONS, EMISSIONS CONTROL, EMISSIONS MITIGATION, EMISSIONS PATH, EMISSIONS SCENARIOS, EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES, ENERGY SOURCES, ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION, ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION, EXTREME CLIMATE EVENTS, EXTREME DRY, EXTREME EVENTS, EXTREME HEAT, EXTREME HEAT EVENTS, EXTREME POVERTY, EXTREME PRECIPITATION, EXTREME PRECIPITATION EVENTS, EXTREME WEATHER, EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS, EXTREMELY POOR PEOPLE, FARMERS, FINANCIAL SECTOR, FLOODS, FOOD AVAILABILITY, FOOD CONSUMERS, FOOD EXPENDITURES, FOOD POLICY, FOOD PRICE, FOOD PRICES, FOSSIL FUEL, FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE, GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL, GHG, GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURE, GLOBAL POVERTY, GLOBAL WARMING, GREENHOUSE, GREENHOUSE EFFECT, GREENHOUSE GAS, GROWTH ASSUMPTIONS, HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION, HOUSEHOLD EXPENDITURES, HOUSEHOLD INCOME, HOUSEHOLD SURVEY, HOUSEHOLD VULNERABILITY, HOUSEHOLD WELFARE, HUMAN CAPITAL, ICE CAPS, IMPACT OF CLIMATE, IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE, IMPACT ON POVERTY, IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, IMPACTS OF TEMPERATURE, IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, INCOME, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, INCOME GROWTH, INCOME INEQUALITY, INCOME RISK, INCOME SHOCK, INEQUALITY, INSURANCE, INSURANCE MARKETS, INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE, IPCC, IRRIGATION, JOBS, LAND DISTRIBUTION, LAND PRODUCTIVITY, LAND REFORM, LAND VALUE, LOW RAINFALL, LOW-CARBON, MARKET FAILURES, METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION, MONETARY FUND, NATIONAL INCOME, NATIONAL POVERTY, NEGATIVE IMPACT, NUTRITION, PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION, PER CAPITA INCOME, POLICY ANALYSIS, POLICY IMPLICATIONS, POLICY MAKERS, POLICY SCENARIOS, POOR, POOR COUNTRIES, POOR HOUSEHOLDS, POOR LIVING, POOR REGIONS, POVERTY ALLEVIATION, POVERTY ANALYSIS, POVERTY ESTIMATES, POVERTY HEADCOUNT RATE, POVERTY IMPACT, POVERTY LINE, POVERTY LINES, POVERTY MEASURES, POVERTY RATES, POVERTY REDUCTION, POVERTY REDUCTION EFFORTS, POVERTY THRESHOLD, PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES, PRICE EFFECT, PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION, PUBLIC WORKS, RAIN, RAINFALL, RELATIVE PRICE, RESOURCE ECONOMICS, RISK MANAGEMENT, RISK SHARING, RURAL, RURAL AREAS, RURAL DISTRICTS, RURAL HOUSEHOLD, RURAL HOUSEHOLDS, RURAL LABOR, RURAL POOR, RURAL POOR PEOPLE, RURAL POPULATION, RURAL POPULATIONS, RURAL POVERTY, RURAL POVERTY RATE, RURAL WAGES, SAVINGS, SCIENTIFIC EVIDENCE, SEASON, SOCIAL FUNDS, SOCIAL SAFETY NETS, SUBSISTENCE, SURFACE TEMPERATURE, TARGETING, TEMPERATURE DATA, TEMPERATURE INCREASE, TEMPERATURE INCREASES, TEMPERATURES, TOTAL CONSUMPTION, TROPICAL REGIONS, UNCERTAINTIES, VARIABILITY OF CLIMATE, WARMING CLIMATE, WEATHER CONDITIONS, WEATHER EXTREMES, WEATHER PATTERNS, WMO