The Impacts of the El Niño and La Niña on Large Grain Producing Countries in ECA
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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There is a need to further examine and
enhance knowledge concerning the relationship among El Niño
and La Niña cycles, drought events, and grain production in
the Russian Federation, Ukraine and Kazakhstan (RUK) region,
which accounts for more than one third of total wheat
exports. This report contributes to close this knowledge
gap. A data-driven analysis is utilized to gain a better
understanding of (a) the potential impact on grain
production of droughts linked to the El Niño/La Niña
phenomenon in RUK, (b) RUK governments’ policy response to
those events and how domestic and regional grain markets are
affected, and (c) the implications for food security and
poverty in the RUK region. The results from the analysis
suggest that the RUK region’s response to climatic events
including droughts must change from reactive to preventive
and predictive. It must also consider a broad range of
interventions to manage risk. Emerging digital technologies
offer unique predictive and diagnostic capabilities that can
be coupled with climate-smart agriculture to improve
resilience to El Niño and La Niña events
Palabras clave
CLIMATE IMPACT, WEATHER FORECASTING, GRAIN PRODUCTION, POVERTY, FOOD SECURITY, CLIMATE SMART AGRICULTURE, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY, CROP YIELD, WHEAT, EL NINO, LA NINA, NATURAL DISASTERS, DROUGHT, WHEAT TRADE, AGRICULTURE STRESS INDEX