Country Economic Memorandum : Realizing the Development Potential of Lao PDR, Volume 2. Main Report
No hay miniatura disponible
Fecha
Autores
Título de la revista
ISSN de la revista
Título del volumen
Editor
Washington, DC
Resumen
Descripción
To sustain or exceed the 1990s annual
average growth rate of 6.3 percent, Lao will need to promote
agricultural and manufactured exports, and increase the
contribution of natural resources to development. This will
require another round of reforms, and supportive public
spending. These reforms should seek to create a more
enabling environment for the private sector, and for
exports, to raise revenue and maintain macroeconomic
stability, as well as to improve the transparency,
accountability and efficiency of public expenditure
management, and public service delivery. To develop natural
resources and mineral reserves, Lao will need to attract
substantial international and domestic capital to meet the
heavy front-end capital costs required to exploit mineral
deposits. To bring in that investment, however, requires
improvement in governance of the mining sector, particularly
in regard to partnerships with the private sector. Looking
specifically at growth and poverty reduction, three
scenarios for growth - base, base plus and high - show
aggregate GDP growth up to 2015, rising roughly by an annual
average of 4-5 percent, 5-6 percent, and 6-8 percent
respectively. These indicate that this long-term growth will
be driven largely by manufacturing (industry) and services,
with growth from agriculture though important in the initial
years, its contribution declining in the long-term. These
growth scenarios depend very much on the pace and depth of
reforms the country implements. Additionally, rising
government revenues from natural resources alone will not
suffice to meet social needs. On current trends, for
example, per capita recurrent expenditures in health hardly
increase until 2015. The country will need to take
additional revenue measures and reallocate expenditures to
increase recurrent expenditures on social sectors. To be
effective, such revenue and expenditure measures must also
be accompanied by efficient improvements in the service
delivery mechanisms, i.e., increasing the participation of
the poor.
Palabras clave
ACCESS TO SAFE WATER, BANKS, CENTRAL MINISTRIES, CENTRAL PLANNING, CHILD MORTALITY, CLEAN WATER, CLIMATE, CLINICS, COMMERCIAL BANKS, COMMUNITY PARTICIPATION, CORRUPTION, DECISION MAKING, DEFORESTATION, DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS, DISABILITY, DISABLED CHILDREN, DISCLOSURE, DRINKING WATER, ECONOMIC GROWTH, EDUCATION OUTCOMES, EFFECTIVE USE, EMPIRICAL RESEARCH, ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEM, ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES, EXPENDITURES, FAMILY PLANNING, FINANCIAL SECTOR, FISCAL DECENTRALIZATION, FORESTRY, GIRLS, GNP, HEALTH CARE, HEALTH CARE SERVICES, HEALTH EDUCATION, HEALTH INDICATORS, HEALTH SERVICES, HEALTH STATUS, HOSPITALS, IMMUNIZATION, INCOME, INFANT MORTALITY, INFLATION, INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY, LABOR COSTS, LAWS, LIFE EXPECTANCY, LOCAL AUTHORITIES, LOW INCOME, LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES, MACROECONOMICS, MALARIA, MALNUTRITION, MORBIDITY, MORTALITY RATES, NATIONAL INCOME, NATURAL RESOURCES, OIL, POLITICAL SYSTEM, POPULATION GROWTH, POVERTY LINE, PRIVATE SECTOR, PRODUCTIVITY, PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH, PUBLIC EXPENDITURE, PUBLIC EXPENDITURES, PUBLIC HEALTH, PUBLIC SECTOR, PUBLIC SPENDING, PURCHASING POWER, REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH, SAFE WATER, SAFE WATER ACCESS, SCHOOLS, SERVICE DELIVERY, SERVICE PROVIDERS, SOCIALIZATION, STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT, SUSTAINABLE GROWTH, TIMBER, TRANSPARENCY, URBANIZATION, WAGES