Tiger or turtle? exploring alternative futures for Egypt to 2020

Vista sencilla de ítem
dc.creatorLofgren, Hans
dc.creatorRobinson, Sherman
dc.creatorNygaard, David F.
dc.date1996
dc.date2024-10-24T12:47:27Z
dc.date2024-10-24T12:47:27Z
dc.date.accessioned2026-06-27T15:42:04Z
dc.descriptionA dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is used to explore alternative scenarios for 1990-2020 in areas critical for Egypt's economy -- productivity growth, investment, foreign trade, and water. The model is formulated as a mixed-complementarity problem, has a detailed treatment of agriculture, assumes competitive markets and determines efficient water allocation. A Turtle scenario extrapolates Egypt's recent poor productivity and low investment, while a "Tiger" scenario assumes East Asian performance. For the Turtle scenario, incomes are stagnant and a crisis emerges in the labor market. With rapid growth in export demand, investment and productivity, the "Tiger" scenario generates almost tripled per-capita incomes and full employment. Sensitivity analysis for the Tiger scenario suggests that growth in export demand is important, while tariff removal with no other policy changes has little effect. Increasing water scarcity hurts agriculture and labor absorption, but has little effect on overall growth."
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/157117
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/112153
dc.languageen
dc.publisherInternational Food Policy Research Institute
dc.rightsOpen Access
dc.sourceLofgren, Hans; Robinson, Sherman; Nygaard, David F. 1996. Tiger or turtle? exploring alternative futures for Egypt to 2020. TMD Discussion Paper 11. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/157117
dc.subjecteconomic indicators
dc.subjectagriculture
dc.subjecteconomic aspects
dc.subjectwater supply
dc.subjectirrigation
dc.subjectcomputable general equilibrium models
dc.titleTiger or turtle? exploring alternative futures for Egypt to 2020
dc.typeWorking Paper

Archivos

Colecciones

Instituto Internacional de Investigación sobre Políticas Alimentarias (IFPRI)