Can Trade Policies Soften the Economic Impacts of an Avian Influenza Outbreak? Simulations From a CGE Model of the Philippines
| dc.creator | Rodríguez, U-Primo E. | |
| dc.creator | Garcia, Yolanda T. | |
| dc.creator | Garcia, Arnulfo G. | |
| dc.creator | Tan, Reynaldo L. | |
| dc.date | 2017-04-01T15:28:46Z | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2026-07-09T07:55:10Z | |
| dc.description | The paper examines the possibilities of using trade policy to address the adverse economic effects of an avian influenza outbreak in the Philippines. In particular, it employs a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for analyzing the likely effects of two options; namely, a) a ban on imported poultry, and b) the removal of tariffs on non-poultry meat products. Using six model scenarios (i.e., production shocks, consumption shocks, ban on poultry imports, removal of tariff on non-poultry imports, and selected combinations of these shocks), the simulation results reveal that (a) the consumption and production shocks are expected to have a contractionary effect on real GDP; (b) the expected fall in the output of poultry products explains most of the decline in real GDP; (c) the production shock appears to have a larger impact since this explains most of the decline in real GDP as well as the increase in the general price level; (d) while the consumption shock tends to have a larger impact on the poultry products, the production shock dominates the aggregate responses because of its effects on other industries, and (e) avian influenza is likely to have far-reaching effects on the economy, way beyond the poultry sector. Based on these results, this paper supports the use of an import ban as a preventive measure against the occurrence of an avian influenza attack. This is based on the finding that the economic costs from such a measure appear to be lower than the costs associated with the disease. In contrast, the study finds that there is a weak case for removing tariffs on non-poultry meat products as a means to soften the harmful impacts of an avian influenza outbreak. | |
| dc.identifier | doi:10.22004/ag.econ.166011 | |
| dc.identifier | https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/166011/files/AJAD_2007_4_2_3Rodriguez.pdf | |
| dc.identifier | http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/166011 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/593604 | |
| dc.language | eng | |
| dc.publisher | ||
| dc.source | http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/166011 | |
| dc.title | Can Trade Policies Soften the Economic Impacts of an Avian Influenza Outbreak? Simulations From a CGE Model of the Philippines | |
| dc.type | Text |