A Land Market Cycle in the Netherlands
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This paper develops a disequilibrium
model of land prices in the Netherlands. It shows that
the behaviour of traded quantities and prices of Dutch
land have some resemblance with a disequilibrium land
market model developed by Søgaard. An error
correction model based on Søgaard’s model generates
significant results with GDP and the real interest rate as
explanatory variables, but regrettably farm income nor
government demand for land generate significant
results. If the model is correct, bubbles are
characteristic for the Dutch land market, and this
suggests that there is an opportunity for Dutch
government to improve on the timing of buying land for
nature policy.