Nigeria - Policy Options for Growth and Stability : Volume 1. Main Report
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Washington, DC
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This report represents an effort to
identify policy options for long-run growth and poverty
reduction that are compatible with the high degree of
macroeconomic volatility and challenging institutional
realities faced by Nigerian policy makers. The report
includes the following key messages: a) The Nigerian economy
is not merely volatile; it is one of the most volatile
economies in the world. b) There is evidence that this
volatility has adversely affected not only Nigeria's
historical growth record but also the performance of World
Bank projects in Nigeria. c) Sustained future growth and
poverty reduction are unlikely without a significant
reduction in volatility. c) Oil price fluctuations drive
only part of Nigeria's volatility, policy choices have
also contributed to the problem. d) Policy choices are
available that can help accelerate growth and thus help
reduce the percentage of people living in poverty. To
conclude, the report identifies several policy options that
may help Nigerian make the transition to a high growth, low
poverty economy despite the current challenges. More work
will be required to further test and deepen the ideas put
forth here, but the effort will bring its own rewards.
Palabras clave
ACCOUNT, ACCOUNTS, ADJUSTMENT POLICIES, AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT, AGRICULTURE, ASSETS, BASE YEAR, CAPITAL ACCUMULATION, CAPITAL FLIGHT, CENTRAL BANK, CITIES, COAL, CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, CONSUMERS, COUNTRY COMPARISON, CPI, CROSS-COUNTRY EXPERIENCE, CURRENCY, DEVALUATION, DEVELOPED COUNTRIES, DIVERSIFICATION, DUTCH DISEASE, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC HISTORY, ELASTICITY, ENERGY CONSUMPTION, EQUILIBRIUM, EXCHANGE RATE, EXCHANGE RATE APPRECIATION, EXCHANGE RATE DEVALUATION, EXPENDITURES, EXPORTS, FARMS, FINANCIAL SECTOR, FISCAL POLICY, FISCAL RESPONSIBILITY, FISCAL YEAR, FIXED COSTS, FORECASTS, FOREIGN EXCHANGE, FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET, FORESTRY, GDP, GDP PER CAPITA, GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, GROWTH RATE, HUMAN CAPITAL, IMPORTS, INCOME, INCOME COUNTRIES, INCOME TAXES, INFLATION, INFLATION RATE, LABOR FORCE, LAWS, LDCS, LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES, M2, MACROECONOMIC MODELS, MACROECONOMIC POLICY, MACROECONOMIC STABILIZATION, MARKET PRICES, MARKETING, MEDIUM TERM EXPENDITURE FRAMEWORK, METALS, MOTIVATION, OIL, OIL PRICES, OIL SECTOR, OPEC, ORGANIZATION OF PETROLEUM EXPORTING COUNTRIES, POLICY MAKERS, POPULATION GROWTH, PRICE FLUCTUATIONS, PRIVATE CONSUMPTION, PRIVATE SECTOR, PRODUCERS, PRODUCTIVITY, PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH, PROVEN RESERVES, PUBLIC SECTOR, QUOTAS, REAL EXCHANGE RATE, REAL GDP, REGRESSION ANALYSIS, RETIREMENT, SAVINGS, SCENARIOS, SERVICES SECTOR, STABILIZATION POLICIES, STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT, TAX RATES, TERMS OF TRADE, TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY, TRADE BARRIERS, UNEMPLOYMENT, VOLATILITY, WAGES, WASTE