The Effects of Imports on United States Groundfish Prices
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This study „estimates the magnitude of the effect of the
increase in groundfish imports on U.S. groundfish prices. The
estimate is based on an analysis of the changes in supply and
demand in the U.S. landings market.
The short-run was found to be perfectly inelastic; changes in
supply are therefore equal to changes in landings. The singleequation
model was used to estimate several demand equations for
the wholesale level and the implications for the landings level
were derived. The following demand equation gave the best fit:
log Qfsp = -.61 -.46 log II!2.12
(.17)
Pm&p
*Significant at 0.05 level
**Significant at 0.01 level
.26 log Y .044 D1**
(.26) (.012)
R
2
(Adjusted) =95.7
Durbin-Watson d = 1.83
.013 D
2
t**
.003)
The conclusions of the study are:
1. The decline of U.S. groundfish prices in the 1950Ts resulted from two factors: the drop in meat and poultry prices and the
increase In imports, with the latter causing prices to drop by
less than 8.1 percent.
2. The effects of imports on U.S. groundfish prices have been
grossly overestimated in a recent study by the U.S. Bureau of
Commercial Fisheries.