Methodologies to Predict Service Lives of Pavement Marking Materials
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This study focuses on developing methodologies to predict the service life of a pavement marking
material based on its retrorefl ectivity. Data from the 2002 National Transportation Product
Evaluation Program (NTPEP) pavement marking material test deck in Mississippi are used for
model development and model validation. The smoothing spline method and time series modeling
are applied to estimate the service lives of different types of materials based on the assumption of
a required minimum retrorefl ectivity value. The same models can also predict the retrorefl ectivity
values at future times for a pavement marking product based on its retrorefl ectivity values in the
past. The validation of the models shows satisfactory accuracy. As demonstrated in a case study,
the predicted service lives of the marking materials can be used in life-cycle cost comparisons for
selecting pavement marking material.