Sudan Country Economic Memorandum
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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From 1999 to 2011 Sudan had a period
where it benefited from extensive discoveries of natural
wealth through oil. But the oil economy had also clear
symptoms of Dutch disease. Agriculture suffered from
neglect, and there were urgent calls to invest natural
resource rents into economic diversification efforts. Relief
to Sudan’s external debt crisis will be critical. The
country economic memorandum (CEM) starts out with a series
of simulations and a review of recent key literature on
growth and diversification with the aim of defining a
suitable approach for growth and diversification for Sudan.
The sectoral structure of Sudan’s economy shows the growing
importance of agriculture, less importance of extractives,
and relative stability of other sectors (manufacturing,
services) by 2030. Looking at other economies that were
successful in their diversification efforts shows that they
were able to broaden their endowments base by maximizing a
triad of institutions to deliver services that ultimately
increase productivity. The CEM finds that there is a case
for Sudan to approach growth through diversification from
two angles: the production and the endowment base, both of
which rely on the effective utilization of key institutions.
This analysis therefore uses a sectoral focus and looks at
agriculture as sources for diversification, but also makes
the case that trading of goods and services - especially of
the higher value-added kind - can be a means to grow the
endowment base of the country.
Palabras clave
economic growth, export diversification, pro-poor growth, macroeconomic policy, agricultural policy, inclusive growth, exchange rates, inflation, services trade, oil, mining