Growth, Trade, and Transformation

World Bank

Growth, Trade, and Transformation

Autores

World Bank

Editor

Washington, DC: World Bank

Descripción

Uganda has made significant progress in the last three decades; most importantly, Ugandans now live much longer and better lives than before. Since 1990, the life expectancy of a Ugandan baby has increased by almost half, from 43.8 years to 63.4 years. This progress was driven by rapid economic growth and enabled by good policies and favorable conditions. Between 2000 and 2011, Uganda’s real GDP grew by an impressive average of 7.9 percent annually. Since 2011, however, growth has slowed down, exposing major economic fault lines in the long run. To support Uganda’s search for new growth, this report analyzes: (i) Uganda’s structural transformation, (ii) the role of international trade, and (iii) future opportunities. The analysis first considers the drivers of economic growth in Uganda, with a special emphasis on structural transformation - that is, the reallocation of labor towards more productive activities. The analysis shows that, for Uganda, where nearly two thirds of the workforce is occupied in agriculture, which produces less than a quarter of the GDP, a more productive employment of labor would inevitably become a central element of a future growth strategy. Next, the analysis turns to analyzing the role of international trade in promoting such transformation. For many economies that suffer from small domestic markets and distortions, trade can help allocate productive factors to more efficient uses. Finally, the report takes a forward-looking approach to explore future opportunities and policies in Uganda, focusing specifically on five key areas: regional integration and trade, hydrocarbons, tourism, digital transformation, and climate change and the environment.