From Demographic Dividend to Demographic Burden?
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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Do regions with higher working age
populations grow faster? This paper examines this question
using data from Russian regions and finds evidence that
demographic trends influence regional growth convergence. In
other words, keeping other factors constant, poorer regions
grow faster than richer regions, and some of the growth
convergence is explained by demographic changes: faster
growth in poor regions in the past was related in part to
more favorable demographic trends. This finding has
important consequences for Russia. If the demographic trends
in poorer regions worsen in the future, this could dampen
economic convergence. Unless there are significant increases
in labor productivity or additions to the labor force
through migration, growth in Russian regions will moderate
as the Russian population shrinks and ages in the coming decades.
Palabras clave
GROWTH RATES, POPULATION INCREASE, WORKFORCE, ECONOMIC GROWTH, RAPID ECONOMIC GROWTH, WORKING-AGE POPULATION, PEOPLE, CAPITAL ACCUMULATION, DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS, POPULATION BY AGE, HIGH FERTILITY RATE, INCOME, INTEREST, REGIONAL LEVEL, EXCHANGE, LABOR FORCE, DISCRIMINATION, MORTALITY RATES, IMMIGRANTS, ECONOMIC STRUCTURE, DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS, WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS, INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT, POORER REGIONS, DEMOGRAPHIC DATA, AGE GROUPS, POLICY DISCUSSIONS, CAPITAL STOCK, REGIONAL ECONOMIC CONVERGENCE, LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH, NATIONAL LEVEL, LONGER LIFE, OLD-AGE, RICH” REGIONS, REGIONAL GROWTH, EFFECTIVE POLICIES, DAY CARE, LIFE EXPECTANCY, REGION, REGIONAL DATA, ADULT MORTALITY, INTERREGIONAL CONVERGENCE, PUBLIC POLICY, LABOR MARKET, REGIONAL SAMPLE, SAVINGS, TOTAL FERTILITY RATE, POPULATION CHANGE, FERTILITY RATES, LOWER BIRTH RATES, INCOME INEQUALITY, AGE POPULATIONS, RETIREMENT AGE, FERTILITY RATE, BIRTH RATES, MIGRATION, ELDERLY POPULATION, SOCIAL SECURITY, DEPENDENCY RATIO, DEPENDENCY RATIOS, YOUNG POPULATION, MIGRANTS, NATURAL RESOURCES, MORTALITY, ELDERLY, REGIONAL POPULATION, PROGRESS, MIGRATION FLOWS, EQUITY, DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION, HUMAN CAPITAL, YOUNG AGE, POLICIES, BARRIERS, WOMAN, FUTURE, PUBLIC POLICIES, AGE, POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER, PENSIONS, POLICY MAKERS, LIFELONG LEARNING, LEVEL OF DEVELOPMENT, NATIONAL LEVELS, RICH REGIONS, DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE, AGE GROUPS, EXTERNAL MIGRATION, DIVIDEND, FEWER CHILDREN, ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF POPULATION, POPULATIONS, OFFICIAL POPULATION, OFFICIAL POPULATION, ELDERLY PEOPLE, POLICY, QUALITY OF LIFE, DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS, OUTPUT, NUMBER OF WORKERS, SEX, CONSEQUENCES OF POPULATION, DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES, LEVEL OF EDUCATION, REGIONS, GROWTH RATE, NATURAL RESOURCE, BOND, WORLD POPULATION, SHARE, POVERTY, POPULATION PROJECTIONS, FEWER PEOPLE, INTERNAL MIGRATION, MEN, MIGRATION STATISTICS, ECONOMIC TRENDS, POLICY IMPLICATIONS, LOWER FERTILITY, POPULATION, REGIONAL TRENDS, POLICY RESEARCH, POOR REGIONS, POVERTY RATE, LOW FERTILITY, SEX RATIO, FERTILITY, DEMOGRAPHIC, WOMEN, URBAN POPULATION, POPULATION STATISTICS, DECLINE IN FERTILITY, REGIONAL CONFLICTS, DEMOGRAPHICS, REGIONAL CONVERGENCE, DEVELOPMENT POLICY