Bulgaria - Poverty implications of
            the global financial crisis

World Bank

Bulgaria - Poverty implications of the global financial crisis

Autores

World Bank

Editor

World Bank

Descripción

There are visible signs that the global financial crisis is affecting economic growth and poverty reduction in Bulgaria. After a period of strong economic growth through 2008, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2009 is projected to shrink by 3.5 percent due to the crisis, with important implications for poverty. The note identifies the following channels as having particular relevance for poverty in Bulgaria: (i) the labor market and (ii) foreign remittances. Due primarily to its effect on trade and investment, the global financial crisis could affect household welfare through contraction in the labor market and slowdown in wage growth. Remittances from abroad, which are significant contributor to consumption of nearly 7 percent of the Bulgarian households, are likely to slow down in 2009. The note estimates the potential impact on poverty of the crisis. The poverty impact is projected by simulating the effects of the anticipated slowdown in growth and remittances on household consumption using data from the 2007 Multitopic Household Survey (MTHS) and macro and sectoral growth and employment projections. Given uncertainties regarding the scale of the crisis and how households are likely to cope, the note is intended to provide indicative estimates of the poverty impact of the crisis, rather than precise estimates.

Palabras clave

ABSOLUTE POVERTY, ABSOLUTE POVERTY LINE, ACCOUNTING, AGGREGATE POVERTY, AGRICULTURAL SECTOR, ANTI-POVERTY, AVERAGE GROWTH, CAPITAL FLOWS, CHANGES IN POVERTY, COMMODITY PRICES, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE, CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE, CONSUMPTION GROWTH, COUNTRY LEVEL, CREDIT GROWTH, CREDIT MARKET, CURRENCY, CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT, DATA AVAILABILITY, DEBT, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS, DEVELOPMENT REPORT, DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH, DOMESTIC CREDIT, ECONOMIC GROWTH, EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES, EXCHANGE RATES, EXTREME POVERTY, EXTREME POVERTY LINE, FINANCIAL CRISES, FINANCIAL CRISIS, FINANCIAL SECTORS, FINANCIAL SYSTEMS, FOOD PRICES, FOOD STAMPS, FOREIGN CAPITAL, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, GOVERNMENT SPENDING, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, GROWTH ELASTICITY, GROWTH PROSPECTS, GROWTH RATE, GROWTH RATES, HEADCOUNT POVERTY, HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION, HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA, HOUSEHOLD DATA, HOUSEHOLD HEAD, HOUSEHOLD INCOME, HOUSEHOLD LEVEL DATA, HOUSEHOLD LIVING STANDARDS, HOUSEHOLD SURVEY, HOUSEHOLD WELFARE, HUMAN DEVELOPMENT, IMPACT ON POVERTY, INCIDENCE OF POVERTY, INCOME, INCOME GAP, INCOME SHOCKS, INEQUALITY, INSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENT, INVESTOR CONFIDENCE, LABOR FORCE, LABOR MARKET, LABOR MARKET PROGRAMS, LIQUIDITY, LIVING STANDARD, LOANS TO COUNTRIES, LOW SHARE, LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES, MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT, MACROECONOMIC POLICIES, MACROECONOMIC STABILITY, MEAN INCOME, MONETARY FUND, NATIONAL ACCOUNTS, NATIONAL POVERTY, NEGATIVE EFFECT, NUTRITION, OUTPUT GROWTH, PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION, POLICY MEASURES, POLICY RESEARCH, POLICY RESPONSES, POOR, POOR HOUSEHOLDS, POVERTY DECLINE, POVERTY GAP, POVERTY GAP INDEX, POVERTY HEADCOUNT INDEX, POVERTY IMPACT, POVERTY INCIDENCE, POVERTY INCREASE, POVERTY INCREASES, POVERTY INDICES, POVERTY LEVELS, POVERTY LINE, POVERTY LINES, POVERTY LINKAGES, POVERTY MEASURES, POVERTY PROGRAMS, POVERTY RATE, POVERTY RATES, POVERTY REDUCTION, POVERTY SEVERITY, POVERTY STATUS, POVERTY THRESHOLD, PRIVATE INVESTORS, PRO-POOR, PURCHASING POWER, REDUCTION IN POVERTY, REMITTANCE, REMITTANCES, RISK MANAGEMENT, RURAL, RURAL POPULATION, SAFETY NET, SCHOOL ATTENDANCE, SOCIAL ASSISTANCE, SOCIAL PROGRAMS, SOCIAL PROTECTION, SQUARED POVERTY GAP, SQUARED POVERTY GAP INDEX, STRUCTURAL REFORMS, SUBSISTENCE, TARGETING, TOTAL POVERTY, TOTAL POVERTY LINE, TRADING, UNEMPLOYMENT, URBAN AREAS, URBAN WORKERS, VULNERABLE HOUSEHOLDS, WAGE GROWTH