Synergizing climate change adaptation and mitigation in agriculture through crop switching: A sustainable pathway to ensure China's food security by the 2050s

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dc.creatorZhou, Zhanhang
dc.creatorLi, Keke
dc.creatorZeng, Chen
dc.creatorDeng, Xiangzheng
dc.creatorYou, Liangzhi
dc.creatorZhang, Wenting
dc.creatorStringer, Lindsay C.
dc.creatorHubacek, Klaus
dc.creatorLi, Cai
dc.creatorDeng, Zhongci
dc.creatorWang, Zhen
dc.date2026-05
dc.date2026-04-29T19:39:50Z
dc.date.accessioned2026-06-27T15:41:54Z
dc.descriptionClimate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) has become a vital approach to adapting to and mitigating climate change while safeguarding food security. Future climate change is projected to shift suitable cropping areas northward in China. Guided by the CSA framework, this study establishes a refined spatial linear optimization model for multi-cropping at national and provincial scales to explore the potential of crop switching in synergizing climate change adaptation and mitigation under the RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 scenarios in the 2050s. Results indicate that under national planning compared to the future baseline scenario without spatial crop reallocation, an adaptation optimization strategy increases crop production by 24.1% to 24.6% and achieves staple crop self-sufficiency (wheat, maize, rice, and soybean) by the 2050s under RCP4.5 and RCP6.0, but at the cost of a 19.2% to 23.3% increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Alternatively, the mitigation optimization strategy can reduce direct cropland GHG emissions(CH4 and N2O) by 30.8%(86.0% from CH4)to 52.0% (79.9% from CH4) while maintaining crop production. While trade-offs exist, specific weighting regions of the Pareto front reveal co-benefits, including crop production (+4.0% to +21.4%), economic profits (+13% to +28.3%), reduced GHG emissions (-52% to -16.2%), and irrigation water savings (-12.8% to -0.7%). Acknowledging implementation constraints alongside modeling uncertainties, these optimal outcomes indicate that, carefully designed crop-switching strategies such as expanding soybean cultivation in North China and replacing rice with wheat, maize, and soybean in the Yangtze River Plain could both enhance climate adaptation and mitigation and help meet China’s food demand in the 2050s without cropland expansion.
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/182714
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/112070
dc.languageen
dc.publisherElsevier
dc.rightsOpen Access
dc.sourceZhou, Zhanhang; Li, Keke; Zeng, Chen; Deng, Xiangzheng; You, Liangzhi; et al. 2026. Synergizing climate change adaptation and mitigation in agriculture through crop switching: A sustainable pathway to ensure China's food security by the 2050s. Resources, Environment and Sustainability 25(May 2026): 100346. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resenv.2026.100346
dc.subjectclimate change
dc.subjectclimate change adaptation
dc.subjectclimate change mitigation
dc.subjectagriculture
dc.subjectfood security
dc.subjectsustainability
dc.subjectcrop rotation
dc.titleSynergizing climate change adaptation and mitigation in agriculture through crop switching: A sustainable pathway to ensure China's food security by the 2050s
dc.typeJournal Article

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Instituto Internacional de Investigación sobre Políticas Alimentarias (IFPRI)